Abhisit, Chaturon and violence
Marwaan Macan-Markar has a useful account of Abhisit Vejjajiva and his government in The Irrawaddy (18 January 2009) that begins with a useful reminder on the “manner in which the Abhisit-led coalition came to office. It was product of the triumph of backroom deals involving reportedly large sums of money and a lead role played by the country’s powerful military – rather than a popular mandate.” Abhisit and his supporters repeatedly tell a different story, so it is worth recalling this.
Abhisit has said that his government “anticipate that there will be demonstrations and Thaksin [Shinawatra] and his supporters will up their game…” prior to the Supreme Court verdict on “Thaksin’s assets that were frozen by the Surayud-led military-appointed government.” However, he dismisses “the prospect of violence breaking out in the wake of the local media running commentaries and reports suggesting a looming ‘civil war’ or a ‘last battle’.”
Marwaan confirms that Thaksin is seeking some kind of deal on the assets, but cites Chaturon Chaisang as saying: “I don’t think that the establishment will negotiate with Thaksin, no matter what the people do or the Red Shirts try…”. He adds: “The government and the establishment think they are secure and they can manage the situation…. “There is no space for reconciliation now.” On violence, Chaturon states: “If violence takes place, the government will suppress the Red Shirts and it will (be made to) appear legitimate.”
Maarwan also cites a “senior civil servant” who says: “Bloodshed may unfortunately be a way out to overcome these [Thaksin/red shirt-government/yellow shirt] splits.”
The correspondent points out that a general election could release political tensions, but notes that the “Abhisit administration appears to have ruled this out …ahead of the scheduled one in December 2011.”
PPT has been reading the plethora of mainstream media stories which indeed seem to be preparing the way for a crackdown if any of the red shirt groups consider opposing the Supreme Court’s verdict (which all these commentators seem to know will go against Thaksin). The government’s crackdown, if it does eventuate, will be justified in terms of law and order.
The court decision is critical for the government and conservative royalists for they see it as a major step in undermining the moneybags source of all their problems.
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