A line drawn in the sand?

At about 8:10 a.m. on Sunday, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva appeared on a television feed to all stations. He was followed Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban. This is PPT’s recollection of the statements made.

Abhisit appeared from an undisclosed location, although PPT admits to missing the first 30 seconds of the appearance. He is said to be away from the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters where the red shirts are to rally today. He appeared against a plain and grey background, was undemonstrative and unemotional, and was dressed in a drab suit. Abhisit essentially stated that there would be no dissolution of parliament, urging calm and lawfulness and stating that he was always willing to talk; there’s been precious little evidence of any sincerity on this last claim. This time he said he was only prepared to talk in a situation where there was no threat and in a clam atmosphere.

The sound quality was poor and it appeared as if this was a somewhat rushed appearance. It was punctuated by a rather abrupt cut away with Abhisit in mid-word. Many opponents will see Abhisit as having “fled the scene.”

The appearance by Suthep was longer (or so it seemed) and he was supported by the appearance – none of them spoke – of the Minister for Defence General Prawit Wongsuwon, Army chief Anupong Paojinda and his deputy, and the 1st Army commander. The cut to Suthep at the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters was poorly handled and some 15-25 seconds of his remarks were inaudible.

When he could be heard, Suthep appeared tired and sometimes appeared to be having difficulty keeping his deeper emotions in check. He is under huge pressure. That said, his speech was an appeal to the people for understanding and support. Suthep stated clearly that the government would continue to allow lawful demonstrations. He pointed out that no weapons, apart from batons and shields are being carried by the military or the police.

A longish aside: If PPT hasn’t made it clear to date, it has to be said that the government deserves credit for managing the red shirt rally in ways that have avoided confrontations that have gotten out of hand. Of course, the credit also goes to the red shirt leadership and their security measures. Yes, the government and military made numerous and well-funded attempts to persuade people not to join the rally and they did their best to delay and discourage those who were coming from upcountry. They have also dominated the media with negative stories and have used various other tactics to undermine support for the red shirts and to raise Bangkokians’ ire towards them. But the bottom line is that, to date, the government has managed the rally quite well.

However, with the military withdrawals yesterday, it seems that the government and the military have decided to draw a line in the sand. Suthep stated that there are certain places that are inviolable. Of course, the first place mentioned was Siriraj Hospital, where the king (and queen?) remain ensconced.

Suthep then said the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters had to remain secure. He mentioned weapons stored there and other infrastructure as being critical for national defence. Suthep stated that the rally was permitted, but if anyone entered the grounds, they would be dealt with under the law. Further, if there was an infiltration of the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters, then an emergency decree would come into force, for the headquarters are only, and that the military would be empowered to act against these unlawful acts.

Suthep asked the population to spread his statement out to all so that everyone knew what he was saying and what the government was doing. He called on the red shirt protesters to understand the position.

Clearly, the stage is set for confrontation. If the red shirts, or a “third hand” appearing to act for the red shirts, cross the line the military and government have now drawn, then the military is empowered to act. No mention was made of the use of weapons under the decree, but as it is similar to emergency decrees used in border areas, it might be assumed that the military is empowered to use force.

The red shirts have said that they do not intend to move into the army’s compound. Their march is scheduled to begin shortly after 10 a.m. However, as tensions rise, opportunities arise for hotheads on any side to act in ways to incite confrontation.

It will be a tense day.

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