Elite strategy 1

PPT hasn’t mentioned anything by Pavin Chachawalpongpun for some time. However, his op-ed in the Wall Street Journal certainly deserves mention.

Pavin recognizes that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s statement some time ago that there would be an election “has infuriated his backers in the army. They are worried that proxies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will win the election, thus jeopardizing the army’s interests.”

One immediate question is why Abhisit would advertise an election so far in advance  if he wasn’t aware of opposition from some amongst his backers? Clearly he was, and feels that gaining a dubious electoral mandate, by hook or by crook, justifies a risk.

Pavin observes that “the military has gone on the political offensive in the past few weeks to intimidate and discredit key opposition figures and institutions. And one of its key tools is the lese-majeste law.”

The use of this law is the single most important indicator that the conservative royalists are (still) on the warpath with the red shirts and may even be prepared to dump Abhisit and the Democrat Party if they find this necessary.

According to Pavin, the Army, led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who “has repeatedly stated that the military’s top priority is protecting the monarchy … [and] the key to the security of the nation. Making this linkage between the palace and the army explicit is designed to guarantee the military’s special role and prerogatives in Thai politics.”

Prayuth has now gone nuclear on lese majeste, with at least 20 opposition members being accused in the past week!

Pavin is undoubtedly correct when he observes:

Any [lese majeste] charges against Thais are a grave matter. Not only is the penalty of three to 15 years in prison severe, but the investigation and prosecution process is also opaque and grueling. Such charges have been used as a political weapon before, but the number of cases has accelerated sharply in the last few years.

Prayuth is devoting huge energy and resources to his anti-red shirt, anti-Thaksin, anti-Puea Thai campaign in a most outrageous political assault.

Pavin understates the case when he says the “military may be exploiting its role as protector of the monarchy to legitimize its own involvement in politics, but in the process it is also further politicizing the institution.”

He’s understating because the monarchy has been politicized for decades. He’s understating it because we suspect Prayuth wouldn’t be on such an aggressive campaign if he hadn’t had the nod from someone upstairs.

Pavin concludes, somewhat naively,

The lese-majeste law is a devastatingly effective political weapon. But the more politicians abuse it, the more they damage the monarchy. In the worst-case scenario, it could become a self-fulfilling accusation. By backing the red shirts into a corner where their criticisms of the elites are accused of being anti-monarchy, the government could split society on the role of the monarchy.

It’s already split, that’s why this is happening. His final words are:

the military’s use of the lese-majeste law could alienate the monarchy from the Thai public…. It is a powerful way to tear down the royal institution, not safeguard it.

We think the powers that be know this but think that the risk is worth it. They think its a civil war they’re fighting and they want to win; they have to win. All ammunition is to be used, from sniper bullets to the lese majeste nuclear option.

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