More on obeying orders

Wassana Nanuam who reports on military affairs for the Bangkok Post has a useful op-ed on current military-based/ -led politics. She begins:

Two decades ago, every time an army commander spoke, everyone, including the government and all politicians, listened. Every move by the top brass to voice their disappointment at any issue was taken heed of, everybody was scared of any signs of a military coup. All that seems to have changed now.

While still remarkably powerful, Wassana argues that “what top-ranking officers say or do (including the statements of the army chief) appear to have lost that magic. Once deemed “untouchable”, the number one officer in the army, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, has come under relentless attack from politicians across the spectrum.”

On the one hand, PPT can see her point in that there has been push-back on Prayuth’s pushy and demanding proclamations. On the other hand, Prayuth seems to be pretty successful at putting the cat amongst the pigeons, playing a pretty bellicose but seemingly effective political role. Look at Abhisit’s relative silence and the way the Puea Thai Party is being sent into a re-organizational frenzy.

But back to Wassana. She asks why this change she identifies has come about. First:

Gen Prayuth probably has come out to speak on the same issue once too often, so nobody seems to care about his message any longer.

Well, some are listening, even if they are pushing back too.

Second, because of the experience of the 2006 coup, when army commander General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin “repeatedly said the army had no interest in staging a military coup,” and then ran the palace-military putsch, the public is “unable to trust them [the military leadership]…” when they declare there won’t be a coup.

The public again sees something else happening, with the Army chief deeply involved in political machinations. That political projection derives from the 2006 coup, and Prayuth has been an especially enthusiastic player and fierce opponent of Thaksin Shinawatra, the Puea Thai Party and the red shirts. Wassana observes:

Once the army bet against Thaksin, it has had to go all the way. The army knows that if there is any regime change or power shift that favours Thaksin, the army would land in deep trouble…. If the political momentum swings back to the Thaksin camp, the army might consider a coup as another option to kill such a momentum.

Wassana cites the support  from the King’s Guard. She cites “Col Apirat Kongsompong, commander of the 11th Infantry Regiment.” She has this quote from him: “Those people whom I don’t want to name are suffering from psychosis. They don’t want to see the country return to normal. These people are meaningless to me.” Wasanna says Apirat is a “young turk” and that he and his “classmates from Class 20 at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School have come out to protect their leaders several times, including the previous army commander, Anupong Paojinda.” PPT also recalls that he was also seen in video shooting at red shirts with a pistol during events last year.

Apirat has said: “I can’t sit by idly if the army chief is criticised by politicians. I have to protect Gen Prayuth because he is a soldier loyal to the monarchy who does everything for the sake of the country and the army. I cannot leave him alone and let his reputation be damaged by these people. It’s my duty to protect him…”. Apirat has warned that the army’s patience is wearing thin and the next time it would be “unacceptable” if the monarchy is criticised and the army leader verbally attacked. He adds:

“We are ready to take any orders from the army chief…”.

Wassana concludes:

Now the public will have to wait and see how this conflict between politicians and soldiers will end, and who will come out on top.Gen Prayuth has, after all, implicitly given the green light for his men to protect the monarchy by showing their anger at the red shirts and displaying their force – but in the barracks only.

For now….