Army and Ukraine purchases

What is it that sees the Royal Thai Army buying a considerable amount of its kit from the Ukraine?

Thai generals shopping in the Ukraine

In earlier posts, PPT has discussed the purchase of armored personnel carriers from the Ukraine. Back then, we first posted about the lack of transparency on military spending that saw the account of the army “seeking approval to buy an additional 121 armoured personnel carriers from the Ukraine even though it has yet to receive any of the vehicles it ordered three years ago.” Apparently, according to a Bangkok Post story, “[then] army chief Anupong Paojinda has decided to spend his forces’ leftover funds for this year on 121 APCs from the Ukraine, which has yet to deliver the 96 vehicles ordered in 2007.” The story on the APCs became a long one. As might be expected, there were questions regarding cost and possible corruption and commissions and the billions shoveled to the military by the Abhisit Vejjajiva regime. Naturally, there were also problems with the APCs suggesting issues like those surrounding the Army’s infamous deflating, crashing, and senseless purchase of a zeppelin from a non-company in the U.S.

At the Bangkok Post there is a report that Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha says the Ukraine will deliver its first batch of T-84 Oplot battle tanks in May. The first post PPT had on this was back in May 2011, when the Abhisit government rushed to spend money and to buy more support from the military in a 18-hour marathon cabinet meeting that, amongst other spending, included  “a budget of 7 billion baht for the army to buy 54 T-84 OPLOT 54A tanks from the Ukraine…”.

A Wikipedia Commons photo

Tanks in Thailand are synonymous with the military coup. They are most often used in Thailand when the Army is thinking about or engaged in a coup.

One of the most significant moments in the development of opposition to the 2006 coup was when on 30 September 2006, Nuamthong Praiwan drove his taxi, spray painted with the words “[CDR is] destroying the country,” and “Sacrificing life”, into an M41  tank at the Royal Plaza. Nuamthong, who later committed suicide in another political statement against the coup, said: “I did it intentionally to protest the junta that has destroyed our country, and I painted all the words myself…”.

It seems that five tanks will arrive in May, with another 50 tanks due by the end of 2015. The army has ordered a grand total of 200 of these tanks. Like the zeppelin, it seems that the Thai military is the only buyer for this tank, at least at present. To us, that solitary fact should sound alarm bells that ring out with sounds like “corruption” and “commissions.”

In coup livery?

Add that to the fact that Prayuth has “had requested a speedier delivery of the battle tanks.” Recall that the delivery of the APCs was repeatedly delayed while the Army ordered more even when not a single APC had been delivered and there were problems with the engines. Another tell-tale sign  of “issues” is Prayuth’s need to affirm that “he had inspected an Oplot tank during a recent trip to Ukraine and believed the army was getting good value for money in terms of firepower and combat capabilities.” As the Post reports, the “procurement drew criticism from soldiers when the deal was announced in 2011.”

Some in the timid Yingluck Shinawatra government must be thinking that they may see the tanks clattering on Bangkok’s streets against an elected government some time in the future or whether they may be used to threaten Cambodia in a PAD-inspired, xenophobic border clash.

Further updated: Colonel Blimps still want their blimp

PPT sometimes finds it difficult to post on the shenanigans at the Army. Difficult because the silly duffers we call Colonel Blimps, who run the Army seem so dense that they repeatedly make themselves look like hopeless fools.

Perhaps the best case for this is on the continuing efforts to make their failed zeppelin fly. Even if they get it to fly it is still a standing joke.

The latest report, at the Bangkok Post, explains that the “army has agreed to pay 50 million baht more to an American airship producer to make its 350-million-baht airship fly for the first time since its procurement.” They refer to a Sky Dragon that sags near the ground in an Army hangar.

The report states: “An army source said the army signed a contract with Aria International Inc on Sept 20 to make the surveillance airship stay up in the air. The company was originally hired to provide the airship, which has not flown since its arrival in the country.” The contractor is confident it can make the airship fly by November.

An earlier photo when the Sky Dragon was inflated and operated

Apparently, “Army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha ordered the contract because he does not want the airship to rest in its hangar in Pattani province any longer.”

The airship has been unable to fly since its delivery about two years ago. The army  accepted the airship in July 2011 and is said to have cost the Army “about 25 million baht” to keep the zeppelin puffed up. Essentially, the airship, ordered during the tenure of former army chief Anupong Paojinda, doesn’t do anything but soak up taxpayer funds.

PPT has posted plenty on this sorry story – see here and here. The revealing part of this story is that the Army has gone back to Aria International. Long ago we linked to information on this company where we said:

Correspondent “Reg” [at Bangkok Pundit] then turns to the company involved and its website. He says: “Note its last stock trade was 1 cent. Have a look through the site and see if you have doubts about the company founded in mid-2008 and with 12 employees. How on earth did the RTA [Royal Thai Army] even know about them? It seems that one of the principals had previous experience with the RTA. According to their press releases, the RTA is their only client. It also seems that they are agents for the real manufacturers.”

We checked on them again today. As far as we can tell, the company no longer maintains a website, it has filed Form15 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, “voluntarily suspending its reporting obligations.”

As a result of filing the Form 15, the Company will no longer be required to file annual and quarterly reports with the SEC. The Company took this action in order to focus its resources on further developing and marketing its unique services. The Company’s common stock will continue to be eligible for public trading only now it will occur through the Pink Sheets (www.pinksheets.com) quotations system instead of the OTC Bulletin Board.

The last time we can see that the company’s shares were traded, it was for a fraction of a cent. It is no longer even a penny company! To be accurate, the last quoted close for the company was for one five-thousandth of a cent! There’s no recent news for the company.

So who is the Army paying?

Update 1: It seems the Army is reading PPT and is responding to our post above. A report at The Nation even continues the “blimp” terminology. The report states the the repairs are going to cost 50 million baht “for two foreign companies to repair and further equip its grounded airship in the South [stating it] was permitted because a maintenance agreement with the seller had expired.” It promises its zeppelin will fly by November…. Then, new, yes, new “optical surveillance and signal relaying equipment will be installed…”.

The Army says that the manufactured by Worldwide Aeros Corp (more here), is “one of the companies awarded the new contract.” Is the other the seemingly defunct Aria International?

Update 2: The Bangkok Post reports an “army source” as stating that the “airship supplier, Aria International Incorporated (AII), had lost contact with the army and had probably been dissolved.” We guess the company had much business other than that with the Thai military brass.

Elisabetta Polenghi on amnesty

A reader has pointed out an article PPT missed at the Bangkok Post about Elisabetta Polenghi’s fifth visit to Thailand since her brother, Fabio Polenghi, was gunned down on 19 May 2010 while reporting on the Army’s lethal crackdown. According to most accounts, he was shot by the Thai military in an area of the city they considered a “free fire zone.”

Fabio Polenghi’s funeral in Bangkok on 24 May 2010

Fabio was one of 93 persons killed in April and May 2010.

Elisabetta is visiting Bangkok for the anniversary of those tragic events and has stated that she is dismayed by the Yingluck Shinawatra government’s “haste in pushing for an amnesty bill while the people have not yet fully learned the truth about the 2010 political violence…”.

She added: “… I want to hear from the actors who were responsible that they were wrong. I want the people who were involved to admit their mistakes…”.

Unfortunately, the Thai military has never been held responsible for the atrocities it has committed in the past nor apologized for its crimes. PPT can’t see the Army brass of that period such as Generals Anupong Paojinda and Prayuth Chan-ocha taking responsibility. Nor can we believe that the responsible civilian leaders Abhisit Vejjajiva and Suthep Thaugsuban will concede that they were wrong.

Another motivation for Elisabetta’s visit is to urge the Yingluck government to establish a sign of remembrance such as a plaque or a sign “in memory of the foreign journalists who were killed recording during this historic upheaval…”. Fabio and Hiro Muramoto were killed during the political violence. She suggested that a memorial

… would at least tell the world that despite all the bad things that happened, the ensuing governments care about the freedom of the press, and also serve to remind the Thai people not to allow this to happen again….

And just as we finished writing this post, we saw that Prachatai has an article by Lisa Gardner that comments on Elisabetta’s visit and her campaign for Fabio’s case to be brought to court. It is stated that a “preliminary hearing is scheduled to be heard on July 23.” Apparently witnesses have come forward, with Elisabetta suggesting that “the 2011 election of the Yingluck Government may have encouraged more witnesses to come forward.” She added: “Maybe because the government has changed, the people are feeling more comfortable in talking to the police…. Maybe they feel more safe…”.

The report states that a small memorial will be held on Ratchadamri, at the spot where Fabio was killed, on Saturday, 19 May at 10:30am.

Ji on reconciliation

Readers will be interested in Ji Ungpakorn’s latest take on the political situation in Thailand, reproduced in full below:

Status quo in Thailand protected by so-called “reconciliation”

Giles Ji Ungpakorn

Two years after the start of the brutal crack-down against unarmed pro-democracy Red Shirts in Bangkok and 9 months after the election victory of the Pua Thai Party government, the real meaning of “Reconciliation” has become crystal clear.

Pua Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawat, elected by millions of Red Shirt voters in July 2011, is constantly photographed, with friendly smiles alongside General Prayut Junocha, the Butcher of Bangkok. It was General Prayut and General Anupong Paojinda who ordered troops to fire on unarmed pro-democracy demonstrators in April and May 2010. Democrat Party politicians Abpisit Vejjajeewa and Sutep Tuaksuban, who were in Government at the time, also have blood on their hands. But the new Government and the authorities have no plans to bring these murderers to court. In fact the opposite is the case. Soldiers involved in the blood bath have been promoted and Pua Thai politicians have gone out of their way to show friendship to the Military.

At the same time, the Government has raised the use of Lèse Majesté to manic and repressive levels with increased imprisonments and persecution. Corrupt government ministers like Chalerm Yubamrung have spear-headed this repression against the freedom of speech, along with IT Minister Anudit Nakorntup. Those who have not yet been found guilty, like Somyot Pruksakasemsuk, have been denied bail and are shackled when appearing in court. Others, who have poor health, like Surachai Darnwatanatrakun and “Aa-Kong” have been forced to “confess” in the hope of a royal pardon at some time in the future. Naturally the Government is refusing to amend this draconian law. The Pua Thai government’s supine attitude towards Lèse Majesté and its support for huge wasteful spending on Royal ceremonies is not just an attempt to “prove” its royalist credentials. It is a way to prove that it is serious about grovelling to the Military and allowing the Military to have an extra-constitutional veto. The Military are the main beneficiaries from Lèse Majesté, since the law helps them to justify all that they do, including killings and coups, by claiming to protect the Monarchy.

There have been no attempts to release non-Lèse Majesté Red Shirt prisoners either. The only concession was to move them to a “political prison”. This did not apply to Lèse Majesté prisoners, however.

The parliamentary committee overseeing “reconciliation” is none other than General Sonti Bunyaragarin, the man who staged the 2006 coup!

Taksin Shinawat, who was overthrown by a military coup in 2006, is keen to steer Pua Thai towards reconciliation with the Military and the elites. He hopes to be able to return to Thailand soon. The public prosecutor has recently dropped Lèse Majesté charges against exiled politician Jakrapop Pencare. He was initially charged with making a speech attacking the “patronage system” at a talk at the Foreign Correspondents’’ Club of Thailand. Jakrapop used to be Taksin’s right hand man. This may be a crumb thrown in Taksin’s direction.

Another aspect of so-called “Reconciliation” has been to throw money at the relatives of those killed or to those who suffered in various ways during the political unrest. One is reminded of the arrogant rich buying off the families of the poor after they have killed people. The difference is that the money comes out of public funds, originating from taxes on the poor. No compensation is being paid out of the pockets of the butchering generals. In the South, money is also being thrown at relatives of civilians who were murdered in cold blood by the Army.

One reason why Pua Thai is not willing to bring the generals to trial may be that Taksin does not want to stand trial over the murdering of nearly 90 unarmed civilians at Takbai, in the South, in 2004.

The official leadership of the Red Shirt Movement (UDD) has made meaningless noises about not forgetting the dead and the need to help prisoners. It is pushing for minor constitutional reforms, but is refusing to back the reform or abolition of Lèse Majesté. In practice the UDD is keeping the lid on any mobilisation against government policies by progressive Red Shirts.

As the Pua Thai government, the Military, the Palace and Taksin join hands in “reconciliation” over the dead bodies of pro-democracy activists, while spitting in the faces of those political prisoners rotting in Thai jails, the only glimmer of hope is with the Nitirat Movement and the Movement to Reform Lèse Majesté. Nitirat want to abolish all laws resulting from the 2006 coup in order to open the way to prosecute the generals. Recently a leading Nitirat academic was violently attacked by royalists. Both these movements are acting as important poles of attraction for progressive Thais and they should be given full support.

Genuine Peace and Reconciliation can only be achieved with full Democracy, Freedom of Speech, the release of all political prisoners and the prosecution of state officials who have committed crimes. The Pua Thai government, the UDD and Taksin have no intention of bring this about.

Abhisit (again) claims he did not order any shootings

Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is in the news again, claiming “… he did not order the army to shoot at people…”. The Bangkok Post has the report of his “fiery” meeting with a Senate committee investigating the deaths of 92 in April and May 2010.

Interestingly, the Post reporters - Mongkol Bangprapa and Wassana Nanuam – seem on Abhisit’s side, stating that “most of the panel members asked leading questions based on their personal assumptions…”. There’s no evidence presented for this claim.

Abhisit again makes these claims and denials:

He said he did not order the army to shoot at people, but casualties occurred because soldiers who manned security checkpoints were attacked by unidentified gunmen and they had to act in self-defence.

“How can you end a protest if you use water cannons to disperse protesters who return fire with a series of M79 grenades?”

He also noted that the protesters seized a number of weapons and ammunition from security officers during the unrest.

He also questioned what the goverment and army would gain from shooting dead six protesters inside Wat Pathum Wanaram and called for the panel to look at the motives of the culprits.

Those who follow events in Thailand have repeatedly heard such claims. Abhisit’s basic point is that he did nothing that anyone could hold against him into the future. The blame must be apportioned to others. He blames “men in black” and “terrorists” amongst the red shirts.

Perhaps it is the military leadership? But, then, General Prayuth Chan-ocha has recently said that he was willing to take responsibility for his actions. While we doubt the extent of this commitment, at least Prayuth has said something that Abhisit seems unable to utter. But then again, it was General Anupong Paojinda in charge of the Army at the time.

Perhaps he wants to blame security boss and former Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban? At least Suthep has admitted that leaked documents showing he ordered the use of live rounds against protesters are genuine. They seem to show that the order was given before any military or police were attacked by any “men in black.” Suthep may well become Abhisit’s scapegoat.

We suspect that Abhisit is again being a bit too smart, apparently believing that his signature may never be found on orders to shoot protesters. Yet he was the prime minister and bears responsibility for the actions of his Army.

Wikileaks, Thaksin, queen and lese majeste

In a Wikileaks cable citing U.S. Ambassador Eric John and dated 22 October 2008, Thaksin Shinawatra is cited, having called John from exile. The reporting is revealing of Thaksin’s then position on several matters. At that point, Thaksin was confident of his political party/ies winning any election. He was worried about a coup:

“9. (C) Thaksin said he had sent a message to Army Commander Anupong Paojinda that the Army should not seize power. Thaksin said he could guarantee that a coup in current circumstances would not resemble General Sonthi Boonyaratglin’s 2006 coup — it would not be peaceful, and Anupong would regret it, Thaksin said.”

Thaksin is then reported to have commented on where the pressure for a coup was coming from: “10. (C) Thaksin told the Ambassador that Anupong did not want to launch a coup, but Queen Sirikit was pressing him to do so. Thaksin also asserted that Anupong knew that King Bhumibol did not favor a coup. Thaksin highlighted that, at the same time when the Queen presided over the funeral of a PAD protestor, the King granted an audience to PM Somchai, sending a more positive public message than the Queen’s. Thaksin added that he had been on the verge of releasing a letter in response to his conviction, but his staff had discouraged him from doing so, saying his tone would have been too angry and negative toward the monarchy.”

Thaksin goes on to comment on lese majeste: “Thaksin said one item on his agenda (and presumably in his draft letter) was the need to remove lese majeste provisions from the criminal code; Thailand could not rightfully claim to be democratic so long as there remained a threat of prosecution for lese majeste.”

PPT wonders if Yingluck Shinawatra will slowly move on this essential area of reform?

Sympathy for the royalists

In one of those generally useless throwaway inserts that the Bangkok Post seems to have plenty of, there is one item of royal interest that caught the eye.

In Sunday 24 July’s Brunch “magazine,” which is apparently aimed at the elite, the last page is “In the Limelight.” This page is full of photos regarding an event at the “Thailand Cultural Centre [which] saw a full house in attendance last week when Her Majesty the Queen, accompanied by HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, graced the premiere of the khon masked dance performance, Episode of Suek Maiyarap.” It can be found electronically here.

What struck PPT about the event is that, going by the photos, it was a kind of show of support for the good lads of the outgoing Abhisit Vejjajiva government. Maybe it was an event where royals and royalists were able to share thoughts and commiserations regarding their thumping defeat at the hands of the Puea Thai Party (or as the elite prefers, the red buffalos).

The story tells us that “The event was organised by the Support Foundation to celebrate HM the King’s 84th birthday anniversary in December this year.” There are a million of these events, but this one was obviously special. Do go and look at the photos.

The alleged “high profile personalities” who showed up to support royals and royalists were “Thanpuying Charungjit Teekara, ML Piyapas and Jutinan Bhirombhakdi, Thanpuying Supornpen Luangthepnimit, Prince Chatri Chalerm and Mom Kamala Yukol, MR Chatumongol and Khunying Boonvipa Sonakul, Prime Minister Abhisit and Dr Pimpen Vejjajiva, Dr Panitan Wattanayagorn, Vinai and Gunnigar Virojanavat, Pol Lt Gen Prakard and Khunying Pa-obthip Satamarn, Vapee and Thanpuying Muanchit Bhirombhakdi.”

For some reason, the southern godfather Suthep Thaugsuban isn’t mentioned. He was there, but doesn’t really fit the model of Bangkok-based, Sino-Thai royalists in this black-tie and diamonds affair. Also there were 2006 coup co-conspirator General Anupong Paojinda, responsible for the bloody crackdowns on red shirts in 2009 and 2010 and Abhisit’s chief of the corrupt police force, Wichien Potposri, and Crown Property Bureau boss Chirayu Isarangkun.

If readers are wondering why academic-for-sale Panitan gets a mention – he’s from the south too – it is probably his Privy Council connection.

We wonder if the queen was rallying this lot for the fight ahead?

Coup?

As pundits consider a Puea Thai Party election victory a probability, there has been increased consideration given to the consequences of yet another pro-Thaksin Shinawatra party leading government. The question seems to be: Will they allow it?

Who are “they”? It seems it is the groups PPT sometimes labels “the establishment” or “the elite” or what red shirts call the “amart.” Given its history of political intervention, repression and manipulation, “they” also includes the military. As the boots and guns on the ground serving the elite and protecting the monarchy and its system of privilege and control, the position of those with guns and tanks is critical.

The stakes are high. The decision by Army boss Prayuth Chan-ocha to demand that votes be delivered to the Democrat Party (okay, he didn’t say those words, but everyone know what he meant) and to draw the monarchy into the election campaign (remember when the Election Commission banned this for parties?) suggests desperation. Then the Democrat Party has “gone nuclear,” trying to use any means, fair or foul) to get more votes. Outgoing Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva’s whinging has reached a peak, and he has even been seen talking emotionally on television as he gets ever more upset at the heckling he gets wherever he goes (except in the South, where the Democrat Party machine is strong).

So the question, “Will they allow it” is ever more significant. In a recent article, Reuters has a useful account that considers the position of the military. Will they allow a Puea Thai-led government?

The report states that, following Prayuth’s recent outbursts, Yingluck Shinawatra “should be concerned” that she will face the same military opposition as her elder brother.

PPT reckons this won’t be news to Yingluck and her strategists. After all, the 2006 coup was just the beginning of a massive operation that targeted Thaksin and his family, their supporters and the electorally successful political parties that grew from the Thai Rak Thai Party.

The report observes that “the army has cast aside its neutrality, analysts say, and looks intent on derailing her. How far they will go is unclear.”

PPT wonders where the “neutrality” was. As far as we can tell, from about mid-2005, it has been clear that there was not the slightest pretence of political neutrality. We agree, though, the Army looks intent in trying to derail Yingluck and her party.

The report says that “a coup is one option, though an unlikely one due to the risk of drawing tens of thousands of Thaksin’s red shirt supporters into the streets in a reprise of last year’s bloody clashes with troops. Most analysts and diplomats suggest she may cut a deal with the army to preserve her government and to prevent a new round of street riots.”

Is a coup a possibility? The article quotes “Kan Yuenyong, an analyst at the Siam Intelligence Unit, said the stakes are high for the military, which faces a possible purge if Yingluck becomes premier and remains influenced by Thaksin, who may seek a military reshuffle in revenge for his ouster.” He says that a “A coup is the worst-case scenario but that can’t be ruled out if Thaksin regains power…. The military has learned from the past and knows Thaksin will want his revenge.”

PPT thinks he means that the royalist clique that runs the military is worried that they will face Thaksin’s wrath if Yingluck’s Puea Thai Party is elected. They have good reason to be fearful. Would any reasonable person not expect the politicians on the opposition side not to be miffed after all that the military has done against them? In any reasonable state, the military brass would be put on trial for mutiny, murder and the base act of destroying a legal regime and throwing out the basic law. Any talk about reconciliation has always been nonsense, as Abhisit has demonstrated many times.

Some analysts “expect the generals to intervene discreetly to prevent Puea Thai from forming a government if, as many expect, it wins the most seats in parliament but falls short of an outright majority and must form a coalition to govern. That’s where the army could wield its influence by trying to persuade smaller parties to shun Puea Thai and side with Abhisit’s Democrats.”

PPT isn’t sure that such a move would be discreet in any way. We think it is a mandatory move, even if Puea Thai doesn’t win. The powers-that-be will seek to red card as many as they can. But even this “discreet” strategy “may not work. If Puea Thai wins by a landslide, or wins comfortably, it could govern with just one medium-sized party in a coalition.”

The article considers a coup a “tougher step” and “… difficult. The red shirts are far stronger and more organised than in 2006 when the generals removed Thaksin. If tanks rumbled into Bangkok, thousands would likely flood the city’s streets in protest.” An analysts cited says: “Another coup is an option Prayuth doesn’t want to take because more red shirts than ever before would come to shut down Bangkok…”. The analyst added: “But a coup becomes likely if Prayuth gets word of a planned purge by a Puea Thai government. There might be no other option.”

But this is Thailand, where political grudges are held for decades, and where behind-the-scenes deal-making is a way of doing all kinds of business that papers over the cracks – often huge gorges too. So the Reuters report reports that some believe “Thaksin and the generals are discussing an arrangement under which Puea Thai could govern in return for an assurance the top brass would not be purged.”

In fact, Yingluck has made a statement pretty much in line with this notion. And the report reveals: “Abhisit told Reuters last week he was aware the military had been approached by Puea Thai with a view to a deal.” They cite Jane’s correspondent Anthony Davis, who believes “a deal was almost inevitable if Puea Thai won handsomely.” It seems the hypothetical “deal” means that “Puea Thai would have to scrap its plans for an amnesty to allow Thaksin’s return, appoint a defense minister sensitive to the army leadership and guarantee the party would not get involved in the military’s affairs.”

PPT wonders if such a deal would work? After all, it is not that different from the deal done between Samak Sundaravej and then Army boss General Anupong Paojinda. Would Puea Thai fall into the same trap?

One thing is clear. The power and money handed back to the military over recent years, as the royalist governments rewarded it for its coup, support and repression, means that neutering them politically is a major challenge. The idea of putting the military brass on trial for their crimes may never be on the political agenda.

 

More on obeying orders

Wassana Nanuam who reports on military affairs for the Bangkok Post has a useful op-ed on current military-based/ -led politics. She begins:

Two decades ago, every time an army commander spoke, everyone, including the government and all politicians, listened. Every move by the top brass to voice their disappointment at any issue was taken heed of, everybody was scared of any signs of a military coup. All that seems to have changed now.

While still remarkably powerful, Wassana argues that “what top-ranking officers say or do (including the statements of the army chief) appear to have lost that magic. Once deemed “untouchable”, the number one officer in the army, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, has come under relentless attack from politicians across the spectrum.”

On the one hand, PPT can see her point in that there has been push-back on Prayuth’s pushy and demanding proclamations. On the other hand, Prayuth seems to be pretty successful at putting the cat amongst the pigeons, playing a pretty bellicose but seemingly effective political role. Look at Abhisit’s relative silence and the way the Puea Thai Party is being sent into a re-organizational frenzy.

But back to Wassana. She asks why this change she identifies has come about. First:

Gen Prayuth probably has come out to speak on the same issue once too often, so nobody seems to care about his message any longer.

Well, some are listening, even if they are pushing back too.

Second, because of the experience of the 2006 coup, when army commander General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin “repeatedly said the army had no interest in staging a military coup,” and then ran the palace-military putsch, the public is “unable to trust them [the military leadership]…” when they declare there won’t be a coup.

The public again sees something else happening, with the Army chief deeply involved in political machinations. That political projection derives from the 2006 coup, and Prayuth has been an especially enthusiastic player and fierce opponent of Thaksin Shinawatra, the Puea Thai Party and the red shirts. Wassana observes:

Once the army bet against Thaksin, it has had to go all the way. The army knows that if there is any regime change or power shift that favours Thaksin, the army would land in deep trouble…. If the political momentum swings back to the Thaksin camp, the army might consider a coup as another option to kill such a momentum.

Wassana cites the support  from the King’s Guard. She cites “Col Apirat Kongsompong, commander of the 11th Infantry Regiment.” She has this quote from him: “Those people whom I don’t want to name are suffering from psychosis. They don’t want to see the country return to normal. These people are meaningless to me.” Wasanna says Apirat is a “young turk” and that he and his “classmates from Class 20 at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School have come out to protect their leaders several times, including the previous army commander, Anupong Paojinda.” PPT also recalls that he was also seen in video shooting at red shirts with a pistol during events last year.

Apirat has said: “I can’t sit by idly if the army chief is criticised by politicians. I have to protect Gen Prayuth because he is a soldier loyal to the monarchy who does everything for the sake of the country and the army. I cannot leave him alone and let his reputation be damaged by these people. It’s my duty to protect him…”. Apirat has warned that the army’s patience is wearing thin and the next time it would be “unacceptable” if the monarchy is criticised and the army leader verbally attacked. He adds:

“We are ready to take any orders from the army chief…”.

Wassana concludes:

Now the public will have to wait and see how this conflict between politicians and soldiers will end, and who will come out on top.Gen Prayuth has, after all, implicitly given the green light for his men to protect the monarchy by showing their anger at the red shirts and displaying their force – but in the barracks only.

For now….

Further updated: War? Coup?

The Phnom Penh Post has a perspective on the “border clashes” that is a little different from that in the mainstream Bangkok media.

It seems that Hun Sen has “accused Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of war crimes, saying Cambodia has to prepare a ‘long-term’ strategy in its ‘struggle’ with Thailand. Speaking at Chaktomuk Theatre today, Hun Sen described the recent clashes as a ‘war’ necessitating the involvement of the United Nations Security Council.” He said: “This is a real war. It is not a clash…”.

Hun Sen declared: “Thailand is making this war, not Cambodia, and Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva must take responsibility for these war crimes…. The shelling at the temple and pagoda are one among the war crimes.” He added: “To struggle with Thailand is not one day, one year, [but] many years.”

Hun Sen reaffirmed earlier Cambodian government claims that Thailand deployed cluster bombs during the skirmishes: “They launched a cluster bomb. Is that a clash? This is the real war, it exchanged many heavy artillery…”. Related, the government’s Cambodian Mine Action Centre “released photos today of cluster munitions allegedly discovered in Kantuot commune, in Preah Vihear province’s Choam Ksan district.”

The report states that the Thai military has denied the use of cluster bombs in this conflict and cites an authority as having “cautioned against taking reports from the Cambodian government on the issue at face value.”

The report adds that “Thailand is known to hold stockpiles of cluster munitions, according to the advocacy group Cluster Munitions Coalition, which said last year that Bangkok had pledged that it would not use the weapons but had declined to sign the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions outlawing their use.” Cambodia isn’t a signatory either and it is unclear if it has a stockpile of such weapons.

Thai army denials on the cluster bomb allegations are here, where Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd says it was the Cambodians who used cluster bombs. Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban says the events are not war but border clashes between militaries. He also reiterated that the Thai government views any attempt at international mediation as “a Cambodian diplomatic strategy.” Eventually, it will be asked why Thailand is so resistant to any international mediation.

Update 1: The LA Times has a useful account of events at Preah Vihear.

Update 2: Shawn Crispin at the Asia Times Online states:

Despite the international dimension, the conflict is being driven largely by Thai domestic politics. Because Abhisit did not give the order to open fire, some see the armed exchanges and immediate breakdown of a ceasefire declared on Saturday as yet another indication that he lacks command control over the military. The hostilities and protests come at a time some believe Thailand’s top military brass seek a national security-related pretense to stall Abhisit’s early election plan….

Under those pressures, the once coherent storylines that have defined Thailand’s six-year-old political conflict are fast fragmenting as establishment forces once united against Thaksin [Shinawatra] now compete to steer the country’s future political direction….

[S]ome have speculated that the military has swung back towards the PAD with the transition from outgoing army commander General Anupong [Paojinda] to new chief Prayuth [Chan-ocha] as a way to pressure Abhisit out of his early election plan. With the reappearance of the PAD on Bangkok’s streets, this time as ultra-nationalists in defense of Thai territory, local newspapers have been awash in unexplained coup rumors. (T-shirts for sale at the PAD’s protest advertise for a “civil-military coup”.)

Abhisit has already backed away from the April “promise.” Crispin continues:

An election win would lessen Abhisit’s reliance on the military, which many believe cobbled together his coalitions, and quiet opposition charges that his administration lacks democratic legitimacy because his party placed second, not first, at the 2007 polls. Until then, however, expect more bombshells on the border and rally cries from the streets.