Opposing junta repression and censorship

25 09 2014

The censorship and repression of the military dictatorship is suffocating for many.

Opposing it is difficult and often requires considerable courage.

At Khaosod and also at The Nation, it is reported that some brave academics have opposed the military junta’s ban on any discussion it considers to be about “politics.” Artists are joining protests.

The aged General Prawit Wongsuwan, who is the junta’s Minister of Defense, has been threatening academics who had the temerity to oppose the junta’s censorship.censorship-1

Those academics were condemning “the arrest of three student activists and four professors at Thammasat University for organising a panel on the ‘Demise of Foreign Dictators’ on 18 September.” Prawit responded, demanding that academics “toe the line.”

Khaosod reports that Prach Panchakunathorn, a Chulalongkorn University philosophy lecturer, has “lashed out” at Prawit and the junta’s smothering of academic freedom. Prach stated:

Academics never crossed any line. It’s the military who crossed the line by arresting lecturers and students inside the premises of the university…. We cannot accept that.

Referring to intimidation, Prach stated that “the military has no right to require academics seek permission before organising a public discussion.”

Another academic, Hara Shintaro, from the Prince of Songkhla University, called the junta’s actions “irrational.”

The NCPO  banned all forms of political activity and public protest after seizing power in late May. Violators have been sent to face trials in military court and five anti-coup protesters have been given suspended jail sentences.

Last week, the military also “forced academics at Chiang Mai University to cancel a discussion scheduled for Thursday, titled ‘Happiness and Reconciliation Under 2014 Interim Charter’.” Somchai Preechasilpakul, a law lecturer at Chiang Mai University, pointed out the obvious: “academic freedom is an important issue.”

Some activists have take to social media and others to public protest, wearing box metal cans (beeps) or woven baskets on their heads, said to “embody a Thai idiom for feeling shameful.”

They also pointed at royalist university administrators who joined anti-democrats and who now work for the junta and express shame about this. Somchai pointed out that they have no legitimacy.

Another academic has said, at The Nation, that he and his colleagues would “continue to try and organise a political talk” despite the junta’s restrictions. This came after the military cancelled a third talk, “on shame and the right to freedom of speech slated for yesterday [at Chiang Mai University, which] had to be abruptly called off after a local Army officer contacted the organisers.”

Meanwhile, at the Bangkok Post, it is reported that another social media campaign against censorship and lese majeste repression is involving some in the arts. Using “The Song of Commoners,” they are calling “for the release of two theatre artists Patiwat Saraiyaem and Pornthip Munkong” accused of lese majeste and for the release of other political prisoners.

The two accused of lese majeste were involved in the play called Jaosao Mapa (The Wolf Bride), the first rime that a “theatre production has been accused violating lese majeste.”

Some artists feel that their space and creativity as been “trespassed on.” The reaction against The Wolf Bride saw ultra-royalists baying for charges to be laid. The attention of such monarchist fascists is unsettling for some artists. One stated: “Frankly, I don’t feel safe to communicate because I don’t know how my work will be interpreted…. This [lese majeste] law is dangerous to everyone…. If someone interprets your intention the wrong way, that’s the end of you.” Another said, “I’m afraid, but I’m also interested in the challenge of how to handle this topic in my work…”.





Updated: Junta warns academics

22 09 2014

It is probably correct to say that most of Thailand’s university teachers are not likely to oppose the military dictatorship. Some are huge supporters of royalist anti-democrats and Thai fascism. A brave few are prepared to stand up to the junta, its total control and its oppression.

As reported in the Bangkok Post, “60 academics from 16 universities … signed a petition against the action taken by police and soldiers who abruptly cut short a forum on ‘The Decline of Dictatorships in Foreign Countries‘ on Sept 18 at the Rangsit campus of Thammasat University.”

The scholars “asked” the junta to “show more respect for academic freedom,” describing the military dictatorship’s action as “highly unacceptable.” They were being polite to the military despots.

Deputy Prime Minister, Defense Minister, junta member and General Prawit Wongsuwan was not so polite in his response. He ordered them to “toe the line and stay within the law because the country is not yet back to normal and is still in need of reconciliation…”. By “reconciliation” he means toeing the line of the military junta.

As is usual when the military dictators do what they want, Prawit barked that “everything must be done according to the law.  Since the NCPO wants peace and reconciliation, I am afraid we can’t allow a politically-related (seminar) to be held…”.

His message is the same as all dictators: do what we tell you to do or you are in trouble.

Update: The Asian Human Rights Commission has comments on this action and condemned the military dictatorship:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
AHRC-STM-172-2014
September 22, 2014

A Statement from the Asian Human Rights Commission

THAILAND: Ongoing criminalization of thought and expression in Thailand 

The Asian Human Rights Commission wishes to express grave concern about the arrest, interrogation, and harassment of four academics and three students during a public lecture on 17 September 2014 at Thammasat University in Bangkok. This is the latest in a series of actions by the authorities in the four months since the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) overturned the civilian government in a coup on 22 May 2014. These actions constrict the freedom of thought and expression of individual citizens while simultaneously contributing to the creation of a broad climate of fear in Thailand. Since the NCPO took power, the junta has demonstrated a profound lack of respect for basic human rights principles, despite their repeated claims otherwise.

On 17 September 2014, the League of Liberal Thammasat for Democracy (LLTD), a student organization, had organized a lecture in their Democracy Classroom series, titled “Democracy Classroom #2: Toppling Dictatorship in Other Countries.” The primary lecture was to be given by Nidhi Eoseewong, prominent senior Thai historian retired from Chiang Mai University and public intellectual, with commentary by Janjira Sombutpoonsiri (Faculty of Political Science, Thammasat University) and Chaowarit Chaowsangrat (Faculty of Arts, Thammasat University) and with Prajak Kongkirati (Faculty of Political Science, Thammasat University) as moderator. The LLTD had requested and been granted permission by the university to hold the event.

One day prior to the event, General Pallop Fuangfu, the Commander of the Control Division of the 2nd Anti-Aircraft Artillery Regiment in Pathumthani province, where the Rangsit campus is located, sent a letter to the deputy rector of the university asking that he liaise with the LLTD to cancel the event. In the letter, General Pallop commented that, “…the aforementioned lecture may affect the resolution of the nation’s problems. In addition, at present, in order to protect against the increased arising of divisions or different political opinions and perspectives, every entity is cooperating in support of the reconciliation and harmony of people in the nation” (unofficial AHRC translation). In response, the university locked the door of the lecture room for which they had originally granted the students permission to use. The students then decided to use an open air space on the first floor of the building instead, and many people crowded into the space to listen.

Before Nidhi Eoseewong had completed even thirty minutes of his lecture, at approximately 5:30 pm, the authorities approached him directly and told him to stop speaking. Then, he, as well as Prajak Kongkirati, Janjira Sombutpoonsiri, Chaowarit Chaowsangrat, and three of the student organizers, were ordered to go to the local police station in Khlong Luang. The seven individuals were then interrogated during which time they were denied access to legal counsel. After several hours, at approximately 9:30 pm, all seven individuals were then released without charges being brought.

By not charging the seven individuals with the violation of any laws or orders, the authorities can still attempt to claim that this was not an arrest, but was rather a discussion to “create understanding,” as they have in cases of arbitrary detention following the coup. However, the lack of formal charges does not change the meaning of this incident as a form of intimidation and violation of the rights of the seven individuals to freedom of thought and expression. At the conclusion of the interrogation, the authorities announced that in the future, topics and outlines of the content of academic events needed to be submitted for approval beforehand.

The incident at Thammasat University is not an isolated one, but is rather part of a broader pattern of intervention by the junta in public events organized by students, academics and human rights activists. The intervention is carried out by the local military unit in a given area, which then cites the authority and wishes of the NCPO as the reason for their intervention. While the interventions have been described by the authorities as “requests for cooperation,” those who have made the requests have the power of guns, military courts, and executive power behind them. These are not “requests” but are rather a form of intimidation and harassment. The authorities have the sole power to decide who can speak when, where, and on what topic. If their wishes are not followed voluntarily, then they will act with the power they have under the gun, the military court (AHRC-OLT-006-2014), and executive power, to compel citizens to follow their wishes.

The Asian Human Rights Commission unequivocally condemns the coup and the ongoing criminalization of thought and speech by the National Council on Peace and Order. The AHRC calls on the NCPO in the strongest terms possible to cease intervening in academic and other public discussions and to cease harassing students, academics, and citizens who think differently. To think differently than the junta is not a crime. Finally, the AHRC encourages all concerned with human rights and justice to closely monitor the situation in Thailand.





On length

12 09 2014
Wassana Nanuam is a senior news reporter covering military affairs for for the Bangkok Post. She usually knows what The Dictator is planning and sometimes acts as a conduit for the military in getting its view known. That is always very useful for her readers because they are getting an inside perspective.

In this context, her recent comments on the longevity of the junta are important:

With a hint delivered during his weekly address last Friday, National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha let us know that his tenure will not end in one year as initially announced.

She’s right that this should be “no surprise.” She says this is because Prayuth has an “ambitious” plan. We’d suggest the agenda is as ambitious as is required to establish a Prem-like “semi-dictatorship.” Wassana says this “may take two to three years or longer…”. We think it will take as long as The Dictator thinks is necessary. “Necessity” may demand staying in power long enough for the king to die and ensure a successful succession.

Wassana reckons there is a threat to the military dictatorship: “the underground movements of anti-coup groups which are ready to surge once martial law is lifted.” This is little more than junta propaganda and there’s no evidence for the claim. Her hclaim that the military dictatorship will be around for a considerable time because “pro-coup people want the military to … make sure that the ‘Thaksin regime’ will not return” is much closer to the mark.Prayuth and Suthep

Wassana notes that Prayuth “has strengthened his power base for a long tenure” through “military transfers.” He “handpicked deputy army chief Gen Udomdej Sitabutr as his successor for the top army position and also deputy defence minister.” Udomdej is Queen’s Guard and the two have “been close since they were junior officers.”

The two of them have concocted a story that they “fought side by side in 1983, when the Vietnamese army” and that the “two eventually pushed the Vietnamese out of the Thai border.” As far as we can recall, the Thai Army, trained only for killing its own citizens, was repeatedly in trouble against the Vietnamese, who were attacking Khmer Rouge sites protected by the Thai military.

Udomdej has also “served both Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and Gen Anupong Paojinda.” Udomdej is likely to only last a year as he retires in 2015, and is likely to be replaced by “Lt Gen Preecha Chan-ocha, younger brother of Gen Prayuth who was promoted to the rank of full general to become assistant army chief.” Wassana states:

It is said that Gen Prayuth, as prime minister, will have a major say in naming the next army chief, and it would not be unusual to push his own brother to the top post. It would be an honour for the Chan-ocha family if two members become army chief, and Gen Prayuth has no doubts over his brother’s loyalty.

Wassana concludes that:

Prayuth has nothing to worry about while he runs the country. A counter-coup is not possible. If the situation is not good for general elections, Gen Prayuth can prolong his interim government with no challenges from the armed forces.

Prayuth can stay in power for a log time. The only question that is unanswered is whether The Dictator can keep control of the population. That is usually where dictatorships stumble.

The tale of junta longevity is confirmed in another Bangkok Post story where the military sycophant-cum-Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-Ngam makes the bizarre claim that the junta “will become only an organisation, not a government as it previously was.” This claim is that the junta is being replaced by a “government.” That this government is entirely the offspring of the junta is somethign Wissanu is hired to deny and propagandize about.

This claim by Wissanu is so loopy that when he says that the junta “can no longer issue any announcements or orders, nor can it summon anyone to report as the government has taken on all decision-making powers on national administration” is simply a ridiculous lie.

Wissanu is simply making the case for a long-term military-dominated government.





Prem reincarnated?

10 09 2014

Bangkok Pundit has a recent post suggesting that the grand old man of political maneuvering for the palace-military alliance may be sulking as he feels he’s being pushed aside. General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council, has had a major say in politics and especially on military promotions for five decades.

PremWe are not sure if the old man is sulking or is aged, sick and weak, a bit like his junior, the king. He’s 94 and the last time we saw him, he was frail and not quite making sense. Senility? Illness? Both? Whatever it is, he’s being replaced by a generation of military men who are 30 years younger and “battle-hardened” from their murderous attacks on red shirts.

These are the generals who will take over the management of the royalist elite’s bigger decisions: General Prawit Wongsuwan, General Anupong Paojinda and General Prayuth Chan-ocha. These mean are more or less from the same generation and have pretty good relations. They are determined royalists with long-term palace relationships.

Some might think that the transition represents a major change. We are not so sure. We think the rejigging has been underway for some time and will probably see them reporting to their old boss General Surayud Chulanont in the Privy Council. The Privy Council is full of very old men and we don’t foresee any major changes there unless Prem dies before the king.

What is clear is that the military dictatorship is Prem-oriented and is unlikely to need to clash with him. The links to Prem and his style in government have been clear for some time since the coup. Prayuth as Prem

As if to emphasize this, Prayuth has just paraded before the cameras dressed as Prem, as seen in the two pictures appended to this post. Prayuth has garbed himself in the shirt that Prem made famous when prime minister in the 1980s.

We think the omens are about Premocracy. Thai-style shirts inevitably mean Thai-style democracy.





A cabinet of sycophants

2 09 2014

Sycophant is defined as: a “servile self-seeker who attempts to win favor by flattering influential people.” Another meaning is: “a person who uses flattery to win favour from individuals wielding influence; toady.” And a third and related meaning is: ” a self-seeking, servile flatterer; fawning parasite.” All of these seem like perfectly adequate definitions of the military dictatorship’s recently announced cabinet of yes-men-cum-ministers.

An AP report stated that The Dictator, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, has “awarded top posts in his Cabinet to senior military officials, in the latest move that critics say will prolong the military’s grip on power.” We doubt that only critics will notice this. We notice that the anti-democrats are cheering. According to AP, the new cabinet “includes 11 career military men with no political experience, seven of them generals, who will serve as the ministers of justice, education, defense, transport, commerce and foreign affairs, among other posts.”

In fact, though, these general do have political experience. All of them have been heavily involved in politics for their entire careers, serving political masters in the palace. As a result most of them have seen 3-4 military putsches overthrowing elected governments.

Indeed, a longer AP reports states, “Prayuth awarded portfolios to several senior soldiers said to have played key roles in both coups, including his predecessor and mentor, former army chief Gen. Anupong Phaochinda. Anupong will serve as the new interior minister.”

Anit-democrats seem to have wanted more military men in the cabinet, with pretend “academic” Sombat Thamrongthanyawong criticizing the non-military “bureaucrats” in cabinet.

PPT is having difficulty reconciling the numbers in cabinet. The Bangkok Post’s reporting has it that there are 36 members of cabinet. The official announcement lists 32, of whom 12 are military or police.

The Nation commented that the 11 military yes-men are “close and trusted colleagues of Prime Minister General Prayuth…”. It identifies three groups of military men. The first are Prayuth’s former bosses, General Prawit Wongsuwan and General Anupong…”. They take the two most important political positions, defense and interior. For more than a century, these have been the most powerful cabinet positions. Here the sycophant is Prayuth. The second group id composed of trusted buddies. Prayuth reckons his “close friends … deserve rewards and important posts.” These friends were all “Prayuth’s former classmates at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.”

These include General Dapong Ratanasuwan, who was an Abhisit Vejjajiva regime appointment to ISOC, used for their political purposes, which coincided with the military’s desires.

The third group of military men are all trusted by The Dictator, who has also brought in “National Intelligence Agency director Suwaphan Tanyuvardhana as the Prime Minister’s Office minister [which] also indicates that Prayuth is focusing on security affairs, at a time when the junta believes there are still threats to the newly formed government by old power cliques.” To make the point again, The Nation states: “It appears Prayuth wanted him to help with possible threats from the new unelected administration’s political enemies.”

Regime protection is important to Prayuth as he re-designs Thailand for the royalist elite.

The civilians brought in are a mix. There are recycled sycophants from the previous coup and a group of trusted and anti-Thaksin/anti-red shirt bureaucrats. PPT has mentioned military sycophant Wissanu Krea-ngam plenty of times in the past. He’s trusted because he is for hire. His position, status and wealth depends on his support to the palace-military cabal. Minor prince Pridiyathorn Devakula is a failed former finance minister from the failed military-backed government led by privy councilor General Surayud Chulanont.Sommai Pasi is a former deputy finance minister in the Surayud administration.

We were most interested to see Narongchai Akrasanee, described as a “senior economist and former commerce minister” included as energy minister. Quite some time ago, PPT noted that Narongchai was a spectacularly failed businessman, and adviser to various governments, who was then chairman of MFC Asset Management. In passing, we noted that even if you fail in this industry and lose millions of baht in other people’s money it seems you can be reincarnated in both business and politics. For more on this, we are grateful to a reader who sent on material.

Narongchai headed General Finance, which was one of 56 finance companies closed by the Thai government in 1997 because of bad loans and making loans without requiring collateral. In August 1998, the Bank of Thailand filed criminal charges against six executives of General Finance. For some of 1997, Narongchai was the commerce minister. He was brought into the Chavalit government by Amnuay Viravan, and they presided over some of the financial meltdown:

Although Amnuay was close to the prime minister and had known him for about 10 years, relations between the two were getting sour. Amnuay came aboard the Chavalit government on the New Aspiration Party’s quota, along with other non-MP colleagues Dr Narongchai Akrasanee, the commerce minister, and Somphob Amatayakul, the deputy industry minister.

Narongchai was a well-known economist and chairman of General Finance & Securities Public Company Ltd, which was among the first lot of insolvent finance companies to be shut down by the banking authorities. Somphob was a former top executive of IBM Thailand Ltd.

 If readers can add more, we’d be happy to post.





Rise of the sycophants

21 08 2014

PPT has previously noted The Leader’s penchant for rightist sycophants. As if to confirm the sycophantic nature of the military dictatorship, the Bangkok Post reports that the junta’s bullyboy policeman, Police General Somyos Pumpanmuang was chosen “unanimously” by the National Police Policy Commission to be the new national police chief.

It is made clear that Somyos was selected because of “his ability to work with the military junta…”. Of course, “ability” here means his sycophantic attention to The Leader’s wishes and demands.

Somyos the sycophantNeed we mention that the Commission is chaired by junta leader General Prayuth Chan-ocha?

Somyos’s “skills” were said to have been demonstrated “in leading a campaign to clamp down on illegal possession of war weapons [which] impressed the six members of the panel.” Most of these were fake raids.

Somyos “has close ties with assistant army chief Gen Paiboon Khumchaya and 3rd Army Region commander Preecha Chan-ocha and friends from Class 15 at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School, which he attended. Lt Gen Preecha is a younger brother of the coup leader.” He also has “backing from NCPO chief adviser Gen Prawit Wongsuwan and former national police chief Pol Gen Patcharawas Wongsuwan.”

Somyos confrimed that his sycophancy is critical in his new position: “Pol Gen Somyot said later his performance in security affairs and his ability to work alongside other agencies were the main reasons he was trusted and chosen by the NCPO for the job.”

When he adds that “he was serving the military regime in tackling security problems on the ground and ‘other secret missions’,” we wondered if this included the smashing of poor farmers and landholders in Loei.

A statement on ongoing death threats against members of the Wang Saphung community has been forwarded by the Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC)

THAILAND: Death threat made against human rights defender in Loei

Death threats still stand and are repeated against the Wang Saphung community

We, the undersigned 18 organisations, are deeply concerned about the Wang Saphung community’s situation. The death threats against 10 community members are still standing. More worryingly, we have been told by community leader Mrs Viron Rujichaiwat – mother of a one-month old baby – that she received a phone call from an unidentified man, on the eve of the community’s reconciliation meeting – Saturday 16th August at 19:00. Here is the transcript of their conversation.

Unidentified man: “Are you the wife of Surapan Rujichaiwat?
Viron Rujichaiwat: Yes.
Unidentified man: Tell your husband that he watch out for himself.
Viron Rujichaiwat: Who are you?
Unidentified man: If your husband doesn’t stop his campaigning he will suffer the consequences.”

We see this phone call as a renewed death threat against community leader Mr Surapan Rujichaiwat, and also against Mrs Viron Rujichaiwat. This event worries us greatly regarding the security of Wang Saphung community leaders under death threats, and of the community as a whole.

Moreover, the Wang Saphung community’s dispute with the gold-mining company, Tung Kha Limited Company (TKLC), is at a very tense stage. This week (19th-22nd August), the Loei Court will start the trials for the first two of seven legal cases against a total of 33 community members. This judicial harassment will drain a lot of attention and energy from the community as a whole.

The Wang Saphung’s community organization, KhonRak Ban Kerd Group (KBRK), has also informed us on the result of their reconciliation meeting on Sunday 17th August, with TKLC representatives, which was mediated by Wang Saphung District Chief. All relevant authorities were also present, including the Maj. Gen. Woratat Supattananon (Military District Commanding Officer, Loei Province),Governor Viroj Jivarangsan, the Deputy-Governor, the Provincial Police Chief, Mr Vichai Cherdchivasart (Managing Director of TKLC), and the concerned village headmen.

After the meeting the KBRK clearly told us that no agreement had been reached during the heated meeting. The company proposed no changes to the current situation, which has seen all mining operations suspended since before the 15th of May attack on the Wang Saphung community. The KBRK asked for all the legal cases against community members to be lifted in the spirit of reconciliation. This proposal was categorically refused by the company, as were all the other proposals from the Wang Saphung community representatives. As the meeting resolved none of the outstanding issues between the community and the company, the authorities concluded the meeting by calling for another reconciliation meeting between all stakeholders to take place in a month’s time.

We believe that the Wang Saphung community will continue to engage in all mediation efforts. This is because we deem that it is the community itself which has the most at stake in seeing the tense situation resolved, as they are the ones suffering both from the mining activities and from the deteriorating security situation.

We call upon the authorities to:

Carry out an immediate, thorough and independent investigation into the death threats against Mr Surapan Rujichaiwat, and also against Mrs Viron Rujichaiwat with a view to publishing the results and bringing those responsible to justice in accordance with international standards;
Take all necessary measures to guarantee at all times the physical and psychological integrity of  Mr Surapan Rujichaiwat, and also that of Mrs Viron Rujichaiwat and all other leaders of the KBRK and their families, including reinforcing any existing protection measures where necessary;
Guarantee in all circumstances that all human rights defenders in Thailand are able to carry out their legitimate human rights activities without fear of reprisals and free of all restrictions.
We call upon the general public and all stakeholders to:

Publicly condemn the threats and harassment suffered by KBRK and the Wang Saphung community as a whole;
Listen to all stakeholders in this dispute, in order to avoid a one-sided perception of the dispute which can only aggravate the already tense situation;

We call on the media to give a voice to all central stakeholders in this dispute.

Signed By:

1. NGOs Coordinating Committee, Northeastern Region
2. E-san Human Rights and Peace Information Centre
3. Network for Isaan Natural Resources and Environment
4. Eco-Culture Study Group
5. Center for Community Information for Social Justice
6.  The Udonthani Conservation Group
7. People’s Network on Community’s Mineral Resources
8. Mid-Chi Basin Community Group,
9. Dao Din Student Group
10. Assembly of the Poor, Rasi Salai Dam’s affected group
11. Lam Panieng Basin Conservation and Rehabilitation Group, Nong Bua Lamphu Province
12. Mekong Studies Group
13. Mekong River Conservation Group, Pakchom District, Loei Province
14. Community Resources Centre
15. Cross Cultural Foundation
16. Protection International
17.  EnLAW Thai Foundation
18.  People’s  Empowerment Foundation

We raise this issue because Somyos is closely aligned with the company that has hired thugs and police (often one and the same) to attack villagers (read the comment of 12 June).





The military threat to the military dictatorship

13 08 2014

At the Bangkok Post, military affairs journalist Wassana Nanuam is usually a reasonably useful reporter of military rumors. In her most recent article, she reveals a quite startling motivation for the military dictatorship:

As army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and other armed forces leaders approach their scheduled retirement on Sept 30, they need to be sure the transfer of military power goes smoothly and that their successors will not stage a counter-coup against them.

A counter-coup? If this fear is truly felt amongst the military junta, then it suggests greater dissension within the military than has so been evident in the past couple of years. Sure, there was talk of tomato soldiers – red shirt supporting soldiers – and so on earlier, but this seemed to amount to little when crackdowns and coups were needed.

At the end of September, Prayuth and the bosses of the navy and air force and the Supreme Commander will retire. All are members of the junta. While there have been postponed retirements under military and quasi-military regimes in the past, Wassana reports that such a strategy is unlikely this time, not least because Prayuth will likely be premier and other junta members may get cabinet positions.

So is there a chance that anti-coup brass might get to the top? While that is the implication of the line quoted above, it seems highly unlikely. The transition, long managed by Privy Council President, former unelected premier and General, Prem Tinsulanonda, he is now aged and losing his capacity.

Stepping in is “former defence minister Prawit Wongsuwan and [also] former army chief Anupong Paojinda,” who will be “the main architects of the transfer of power. Gen Prawit is now chairman of the NCPO advisory panel and Gen Anupong is deputy chairman.”

Prayuth, Prawit and Anupong “have kept close ties since the early stages of their military careers when they served in the 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri. They were also members of the Burapha Phayak, or Tigers of the East, the name used by present and former soldiers of the 2nd Infantry Division (Queen’s Guard) based in the eastern province of Prachin Buri.” They have been the principal “red-busting” force of recent years, slaying, jailing and harassing red shirt political activists and protesters. Under “the Abhisit Vejjajiva government. Gen Prawit was defence minister while Gen Anupong was the army chief and Gen Prayuth was deputy army chief” and it was they who planned and implemented the attacks on protesters in 2010.

They have also made sure that their trusted cronies got to the top in the military: “When Gen Prawit was army chief between 2004-2005, he assigned army officers from the Burapha Phayak faction to control the army’s key combat units, replacing those from the Wongthewan group. After the Sept 19, 2006 coup, Gen Anupong and Gen Prayuth took on the role of army chief successively.”

Deputy army chief General Udomdej Sitabutr “is favoured for the post of army chief. He is also a member of the Burapha Phayak group.” An unnamed “army source said Gen Udomdej is the one who Gen Prawit, Gen Anupong and Gen Prayut trust most as they and Gen Udomdej served together when they were young soldiers.”

The idea of a counter-coup seems fanciful, yet back in the period of Premocracy, it was only threats from within the military – often from disgruntled field commanders – that appeared likely to unseat Prem. It was support from the palace that maintained his position. PPT suspects that the current palace is with Prayuth, Prawit and Anupong.








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