Competition on succession?

PPT has heard all the rumors about intra-family competition on succession, yet a picture can tell a story.

Updated: Lessons

The Bangkok Post has a neat report, heavy with prescription (and a little hope) regarding the rise of Willem-Alexander to be king of the Netherlands following his mother’s abdication.

It cannot be without considerable thought that the Post begins its story thus:

Dutch King Willem-Alexander has undergone a remarkable transformation from his image as a boozing Casanova, ill-equipped for the throne, to a serious family man well-loved by his people.

The comparison with Thailand’s own crown prince’s behavior is clear, not least as both men are pilots and both have been kings-in-waiting for a long time. Both have lived luxury lifestyles and both have enjoyed overseas haunts, one in Mozambique and the other in Germany.

Siblings: Vajiralongkorn and Sirindhorn

The report notes that:

… Willem-Alexander had a difficult adolescence, and was sent to complete his high school in Wales.

On returning to the Netherlands for his military service in the Navy and then to study, the young prince built an image in the Dutch media as a hard-partying and troublesome royal, earning him the nickname of “Prince Pils” after a particular beer.

Thailand’s royalists have long hoped that Vajiralongkorn would also eventually settle down and be more kingly in stature and behavior prior to actually becoming king. As Willem-Alexander indicates, just becoming king has an impact on popularity (at least until the first gaffe), and he still has his mother to stand behind him and help out as required. Abdication seems an impossibility in Thailand.

In Thailand,  the hopes for Vajiralongkorn have faded to be replaced by endless speculation about a more suitable “other” stepping in, and this chatter becomes ever more fervent as the aged king suffers yet another bout of illness that has kept him in a hospital since September 2009. But, for many of the hopeful, it remains forlorn hope, and they worry that the monarchy is doomed.

While his consort, a daughter of a military-junta serving Argentine, has not been the subject of widely available and scandalous videos and pictures, the comparisons between Vajiralongkorn and Willem-Alexander are too strong to go unnoticed.

Yet the difference seems to be that while Vajiralongkorn is withdrawn and aloof, the new Dutch monarch has painted himself a “man of the people.” Obviously, the royal handlers have played an important role in this. Such makeovers have been tried in Thailand – it worked for the current king – but Vajiralongkorn seems uninterested in this kind of advice.

Thailand’s monarchy may not be doomed but its political involvement and clear support for the 2006 military coup and criticism of its immense wealth mean that it continues to face its greatest challenge since the death of Ananda Mahidol.

Update: A reader points out that this is a wire story and not a Bangkok Post story. That’s true, but the Bangkok Post chose to run it and given it is a royal story, must have thought about it very carefully before using it. That is significant.

Speculation on politics and succession

Shawn Crispin at the Asia Times Online engages in some speculation regarding the future of the Yingluck Shinawatra government and succession. It is a long and rambling essay that packs almost every political event into its musings, with very few facts and plenty of guesses; yet it still worth a read.

He begins by noting that:

While both sides have appeared committed to avoid new rounds of confrontation in the autumn of King Bhumibol’s palace-proclaimed unifying reign and in light of Yingluck’s conciliatory tack, the criminally convicted Thaksin’s persistent push for a political amnesty is still viewed by many royalists as non-negotiable, including within the top ranks of the military led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha.

He adds that “Peua Thai efforts to table assorted amnesty bills in parliament and a parallel investigation by the quasi-independent National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) into alleged irregularities in Yingluck’s personal asset declaration made upon taking office that threatens to topple her from power.” Crispin notes that the NCCC’s investigation is seen by some “as a royalist counter to Peua Thai’s amnesty and constitutional amendment initiatives…”.

Crispin puts succession front and center, just as some claimed it was when the military ran its coup for the palace in 2006. He argues that politics is all about Thaksin and the monarchy, with royalists falsely declaring that any attempt to amend the constitution is “aimed to undermine the monarchy’s position and power ahead of a delicate and increasingly uncertain royal succession.”

While “Yingluck has worked to temper royalist fears that her Thaksin-influenced government represents an existential threat to the monarchy and associated institutions,” her government seems unable to use its massive electoral mandate against the unelected elite forces.

Crispin includes considerable speculation regarding rifts in the government and between the government and red shirts, but the real story revolves around the subterranean battle between royalists-palace and Thaksin-red shirts, with the latter lacking influence over the courts:

Significantly, the MoJ lacks power over top level courts, including appointments to the Administrative, Appeals, Constitutional, and Supreme Courts. All four courts are widely viewed as royalist power centers, due in part to a series of rulings that have gone against Thaksin since the 2006 military coup that toppled his elected government. Since, Bhumibol has at royal audiences repeatedly called on freshly appointed top judges to rule with independence and righteousness.

Of course, for the palace, “independence and righteousness” means ruling in their interests.

Crispin ruminates on the “changed power dynamics in the palace in the wake of Queen Sirikit’s recent illness” and the king’s extended hospitalization. He refers to some who see “Thaksin as resigned to bide his time outside of the country and appeal for a royal pardon after rather than before the royal succession.” He repeats the usual speculation that “Thaksin may receive more sympathetic royal treatment under heir apparent Crown Prince Vaijralongkorn, due in part to their known past personal ties.”

However, he then speculates on succession shenanigans: “While many analysts and diplomats believe that the royal succession plan from Bhumibol to Vajiralongkorn is immutable, others have interpreted differently recent royal household signals and events.”

Sirikit, who “suffered from an ischemic stroke last July,” is out of sight and may be impaired physically and mentally. The king has been chirpier in recent times, but regularly falls back into illness and incoherence. All of this – PPT’s speculation – leads:

Some diplomats and political analysts now wonder if the long-held succession plan could be altered if the highly influential 80-year-old Sirikit, known to be her son’s top backer for the throne, were to pass ahead of Bhumibol. In line with the royal tradition known as wang na, Vajiralongkorn is renovating his Bangkok-based Amporn palace, as well as for less clear reasons facilities maintained at Don Muang airport, in advance of the anticipated transition.

Crispin then cites:

… “[p]alace insiders who spoke to Asia Times Online suggest that Vajiralongkorn’s first daughter, Princess Bajraktiyabha, could instead play a bridging role in a potential compromise scenario between royal camps vying alternately between Vajiralongkorn and Princess Sirindhorn to assume the throne. That face-saving scenario would see Bajraktiyabha take on a regency role while Vajiralongkorn’s youngest son, Prince Dipangkorn Rasmijoti, is groomed for the throne.

Frankly, these rumors have been around for several years and suggest royalist hope rather than anything more. Yet there is always the chance that succession can spin out of control, especially if the old duffers at the Privy Council get involved or the military decides to fiddle things. But as one of PPT’s unnamed sources speculated, it is expected that the king can go on for another 10 years, and the longer he does, the less royalist and middle-class opposition there may be to a shorter Vajiralongkorn reign.

All for Fu Fu

The German newspaper Bild has reported on yet another European shopping expedition by Thailand’s Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, apparently getting stuff for kids and dogs.

The report begins:

He flies his own Boeing 737 around the world. His father has a fortune of 30 billion euros. He sends his jet from Bangkok to London to his favorite (takeaway) spring rolls…. And now the 60 year-old prince is in Hamburg with a large entourage for a shopping spree!

As usual, the prince is reported to have flown “his” Boeing 737-400 and as soon as it landed, two large Mercedes Benz sedans and eight vans were waiting on the tarmac to collect the prince and his entourage. The prince was whisked off to a suite at the Atlantic Hotel. The story reports that normally goes for 4500 EUR a night, although PPT found that it was only 3,800 Euros tonight. But we guess that the prince gets it for free as it is part of the Kempinski Hotels group, owned by the Crown Property Bureau.

Then the shopping began: “The caravan of ten cars stopped at the first tier Accessories Shop “Pet Shop Boyz” at the Schmilinskystraße (St. George).” Apparently several thousand Euros when on dogie delights and toys. Fu Fu will be ecstatic. The prince then drooped more loot at a toy store near by. The report says the shopping will continue in Munich.

For earlier stories on the prince’s plane, see here.

For earlier shopping stories, see here, here, and here.

The Fu Fu syndrome

PPT should have posted on this when it came out at Foreign Policy, but we got caught on other stories. Here we post a snippet from the magazine’s assessment of potential sources of instability in Asia for 2013:

If King of Thailand dies

The 85-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej has been Thailand’s head of state since 1946. Over the past several decades of his rule, Thailand has seen numerous coups, wars in neighbouring states, economic booms and economic busts.

Violent street protests in 2010 left more than 90 dead and 2,000 injured, and 2012 saw a deepening constitutional crisis. Through it all, Bhumibol’s immense popularity and moral authority had ensured that he remained a crucial and stabilising figure in Thai politics.

VAJIRALONGKORN: His coronation is a worrying eventuality

Lèse majesté laws restrict criticism of the king, but his popularity amongst Thais is not in doubt. The same cannot be said for his son and heir, the Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, who has had three wives (compared to his father’s one wife of 62 years) and threw a lavish and unseemly birthday party in 2009 for his miniature poodle Foo Foo.

Thais may be legally barred from saying so, but the king’s passing and the crown prince’s coronation is a worrying eventuality.

After a rumour of his ill health swept the country in October 2009, the Thai stock market dropped more than eight per cent and the value of the baht tumbled.

Bhumibol’s death could usher in a new period of Thai politics, in which the new king lacks the authority or charisma to impose stability on an unstable system.

No longer “universally revered”

Simon Roughneen’s birthday article at the Christian Science Monitor begins with an interesting statement: “Though the royal institution once enjoyed a near-universal respect, recent political polarization has raised questions about the role of the monarchy and about the country’s future after his reign.” He goes on to observe that the “world’s longest-sitting monarch is portrayed as a widely-revered apolitical father-figure…”. Generally the international media has been complicit in this portrayal.

PPT isn’t sure there was ever “near-universal respect” at any time in the past, but the point that the monarchy’s populist position has been reduced by its obvious political interventionism in recent years is an useful observation.

Roughneen spends the article talking of succession and the possibilities of destabilization. He cites historian Thongchai Winichakul who says that at the end of the reign, “the royalist domination in politics will be in disarray, for sure.” The academic adds that the monarchy’s power may decline” but there will be a temptation for “tighter control during the transition…”.

He also quotes Paul Handley who rightly observes that the royalists behind the 2006 coup “cannot be happy that Thaksin’s sister [Yingluck Shinawatra] is prime minister…. I think that limits her ability to begin normalizing politics away from palace intrigue, if that was even in her ability and intention.”

Roughneen concludes: “So for now authorities perpetuate kingly mystique…”. It is as much a charade as a mystique. Times have changed, power is shifting, and the monarchy is struggling to keep its political power and authority.

 

Updated: Political prince

The Nation reports that Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn has commented on politics. In most constitutional monarchies, royals will studiously avoid any political comment as these can always be interpreted in multiple ways. Political commentary is something usually left to elected politicians.

During this reign, the king has never seen that his role is outside politics, and has persistently commented and been involved in political activities. It seems that a King Vajiralongkorn will be equally unconstrained by what other constitutional monarchies would consider prudent and constitutional practice.

The prince is reported as stating:

Speaking to graduates of an advanced course in political development and election classes one, two and three at Chitralada Palace, the Crown Prince said Thai politics has changed from time to time, sometimes in a good direction, sometimes not. “If any part [of the political system] develops in a positive direction we should support that part and build on it to become better,” he said.

“If any part leads into a bad direction, we should correct it. [And not] allow it deter political development in the country,” he said.

“If all parties help each other to correct the wrong things, Thai politics will develop firmly and strongly for the benefit of all people,” he said.

Such comments might seem innocuous enough to many observers but the fact remains that a constitutional monarchy only works (and protects the monarchy) when it is silent on politics.

Update: Several readers have emailed us to ask whether the statement, “graduates of an advanced course in political development and election classes one, two and three at Chitralada Palace,” means that the palace has been running political classes. To be honest, PPT read this as saying  that the prince presided over some kind of graduation ceremony. THe report gave no more information. If any reader knows more, PPT would be pleased to receive more emails.

VIPs and royal charity

Buddhists are often interested in charity. In Thailand, the very rich have been interested in charity for its ideological and political significance. This has increasingly meant charity directed to royals and their foundations. The lines of Sino-Thai tycoons lining up to throw money at the rich royals in exchange for being seen to be loyal and charitable is standard fare on television and in the newspapers diligently reporting royal affairs.

Such shows of royal merit making and charity have been important in tying the ruling class together through the now huge official royal charities. This was one of the revealing parts of Paul Handley’s The King Never Smiles. The opportunities for “donating” to things royal have expanded considerably to allow for these mutually beneficial events to show how charitable and good the very rich are.

Collecting the meritorious money has become quite a task, as the ritual of handing it over takes up considerable time, as anyone who still watches the televised royal news knows. So it is that Matichon reports on a rather more efficient congealing of royals, charity and Buddhism. As Christine Gray noted some time ago, “Merit ceremonies are the primary context in which economic power is converted into religious prestige…” and royals and the other rich make much use of this. Joining with royals to make merit is good business and good sense, especially as one may bathe in the reflected glory and just enough of the vaunted barami might rub off.

For a mere 500,000 baht each, 100 of the rich can buy a seat on a Thai Airways flight from Bangkok to Khon Kaen piloted by Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. Billed as a chance to make merit at a forest temple in Khon Kaen, while raising money for scholarships. And they get to be seen in the royal news as well.

While 49 seats are reserved for Thai Airways and related VIP guests, the other 100 seats are up for grabs and this seems like an opportunity too good to miss for rich royalists who want an efficient way to demonstrate loyalty, be royally charitable and to be recognized for this.

Getting ready

Several readers have recently pointed out to PPT that the crown prince is getting more “air time” of late. With both his parents aged and ill, there can be little doubt that preparations are underway for succession.

An example of the transition in advertising to the crown prince is seen in a recent story at the Pattaya Daily News, where an decrepit navy tub has been sunk to honor the prince’s 60th birthday. It is always odd when the monarchy is honored for something that seems quite normal and workperson-like, but in royalist Thailand it seems that even sinking a disabled ship is deserving of royal propaganda.

Even if the idea of sinking a ship to honor someone is stretching credulity, the line used is, of course, that the royals are big on the environment (and this leaky boat becomes an artificial reef. Of course, the royals make this pitch while supporting the building of huge shopping centers, resorts, palaces, dams and so on, but it is the claim that matters rather than any fact.

PPT expects the prince to be getting plenty more of this attention.

A royal antiques roadshow

An NBC News report, including a video story, also in various versions at ITV News and Mail Online, all report that a “Thai princess stripped the shelves and rang up around $40,000 through the tills of an English antiques center during an eight-hour shopping spree…”.

Battlesbridge antique dealers in the English county of Essex, said “Royal Consort Princess Srirasmi of Thailand scooped up hundreds of items and paid for them — on the spot and in cash – during her visit on Friday.”

Reportedly “accompanied by the Thai Ambassador Kitti Wasinondh, 15 assistants and the royal physician,” Srirasmi, the official consort of Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, is said to have “purchased a variety of antiques, including china tea sets, silverware and oil lamps.” One dealer explained that the “princess was just choosing things that took her fancy. … Very decorative items — but masses and masses of it…”. The dealers said that most items purchased were priced between $15 and $60, suggesting a Bargain Hunt rather than an Antiques Roadshow.

Apparently the royal consort “arrived unannounced in a 15-vehicle motorcade and spent the next eight hours snapping up” her treasure trove. The convoy included “chauffeur-driven limousines with blacked-out windows, a mini bus and vans.” One of the reports states that Srirasmi “immediately set about selecting items before an army of assistants labelled them and packed them into boxes.” One dealer was cleaned out of Lladro figurines. Another dealer said she bought “more than 100 items at her store alone.” These items included “solid silver and porcelain tea sets, Royal Worcester china and Tupton Ware ceramics, Royal Doulton figurines and more than 30 oil lamps.”

One of the reports states that by “the time the princess and her entourage swept out of Battlesbridge in blacked-out limousines, most of the shelves in the antiques market were left bare…”. On that last word, one of the reports explains: “Princess Srirasmi hit the headlines in November 2009, when a home video was released on Wikileaks showing her topless at a family party.”

Regular readers will recall that back in early July, with Vajiralongkorn, Srirasmi spent several thousand dollars at another antiques location in Britain. Then we posted about the buying trip:

The White Lion Antique Centre in Hartley Wintney was closed to the public as Vajiralongkorn and Srirasmi had their scones and bought a bit of the store’s inventory. The story states the couple bought  “300 items of bone china.” That’s be just a bit of change for the scion of the world’s richest monarchy.

$40,000 or so might be “a bit of change” for the wealthy or even a business investment. However, with the involvement of an ambassador, the conclusion is that the Thai taxpayer and state continue to fork out treasure to support luxury lifestyles and royal desires.