The odds favor the Democrat Party

Reuters has an analysis of a “coming poll.” The claim is that the “odds favor the Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva…”. True enough, although the military brass and some in the elite circle of Democrat Party backers seem less certain. But how is it that the odds are in Abhisit’s favor?

Here’s one way: “If Abhisit loses, his royalist and military backers are unlikely to give way quietly, possibly using judicial intervention or a coup to restore the status quo.”

Here’s another: the opposition is said to be in “disarray” and the economy “is performing strongly.”

Another: “Abhisit has rolled out a raft of populist economic policies and subsidies targeting the poor, the vast majority of voters.” The Democrat Party’ promises “to roll out infrastructure projects, raise wages by 25 percent over two years and strengthen strategic agro-business and tourism industries.”  And much more.

One more: Abhisit’s government presided over events where “91 people were killed…”.

And this: “Thailand can expect another coalition government and more back-room deals with shady figures in smaller parties, a recipe for corruption.” That is in Abhisit’s favor too.

This also helps the government: “Internal power struggles that pit pro-Thaksin parliamentarians against red shirt protest leaders have driven at least 10 of the parliamentarians to defect this year, fueling speculation more could leave for other parties as the poll draws closer.”

And the claims of lese majeste are calculated to deepen any rifts in Puea Thai and makes more deals possible for the government parties.

There’s much more in the report.