Thaksin-Yingluck strategy has failed

17 11 2012

Since the 2011 election, amongst others, PPT has posted skeptically about the political strategy adopted by Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra in dealing with their opposition.

They made it clear that they wanted no more than to stay in power for four years. To do that, the Puea Thai government has done all that it can to appease the military, monarchy, royalists and other opponents. Whenever the government has proposed anything that has resulted in rising opposition or criticism, it has withdrawn.

Like others, PPT pointed out that the flaw in this strategy was that the opponents -yellow shirts, military brass, ultra-royalists, palace figures and the Democrat Party – were never going to accept the elected and popular government as loyal and legitimate. After all, none of these groups accept that elections are a legitimate way to decide who should rule and none of them accept that the majority of voters matter.

Following the election in 2011, Democrat Party mover and shaker Suthep Thaugsuban made it clear that neither elections nor parliament matter in the struggle by the conservative elite to get what it wants.

Unfortunately, while the Thaksin-Yingluck strategy was successful for a while, we fear that we may be proven correct by current events. A few days ago, we mentioned that the Thaksin-Yingluck strategy of cooling politics had been unable to neutralize the royalists who see Thaksin as disloyal and a populist threat to their interests.

News today is that the military has decided to undermine the government, a bit like it did in 2008. At The Nation, Supreme Commander General Thanasak Patimakorn and Army boss General Prayuth Chan-ocha, speaking for all service commanders, “told her [Yingluck] that troops would not get involved in controlling the demonstrators.”

PPT doesn’t think the government should put troops o the street or invoke the Internal Security Act as the Abhisit Vejjajiva regime did with gay abandon. However, in a normal political system, it is not up to military bosses to tell the elected government to take a long jump. As in 2008, the military commanders are engaged in mutiny. Notably, they did not do this when the Democrat Party-led administration gave them control of them control of security and protecting the regime. Today they again appear to be preparing to bring down an elected government.

The Yingluck government is clearly very spooked by the dinosaur movement, this time called Pitak Siam. The police and other security and intelligence agencies are also very worried and want the ISA invoked because they feel the multiple groups rallying could be uncontrollable and because police do not relish being subject to legal action if the ISA was not enforced (that is one of the things wrong with the ISA!).

The brass may be right that there won’t be violence. If there is, they are telling the government to take a running jump and be prepared to be ousted.

Red shirts are unlikely to meekly acquiesce on moves to oust another elected government. The stage is being prepared for a showdown….  We hope we are wrong, but it could get very nasty, very quickly.


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17 11 2012
Red shirts and Pitak Siam « Political Prisoners in Thailand

[…] problem Pitak Siam poses for the Yingluck Shinawatra government and the failed Thaksin-Yingluck strategy means that it has again been red shirts that have had to “save the day,” at least for […]

17 11 2012
Red shirts and Pitak Siam « Political Prisoners of Thailand

[…] problem Pitak Siam poses for the Yingluck Shinawatra government and the failed Thaksin-Yingluck strategy means that it has again been red shirts that have had to “save the day,” at least for the […]

7 12 2012
One dimensional politics « Political Prisoners in Thailand

[…] problem for us in all of this is that the Yingluck-Thaksin strategy has likely failed and it was never likely that the royalists would accept a pro-Thaksin government, no matter what it […]

7 12 2012
One dimensional politics « Political Prisoners of Thailand

[…] problem for us in all of this is that the Yingluck-Thaksin strategy has likely failed and it was never likely that the royalists would accept a pro-Thaksin government, no matter what it […]

7 01 2013
Thaksin-Yingluck strategy has failed II « Political Prisoners in Thailand

[…] times PPT has posted skeptically about the political strategy adopted by Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra in dealing with their […]

7 01 2013
Thaksin-Yingluck strategy has failed II « Political Prisoners of Thailand

[…] times PPT has posted skeptically about the political strategy adopted by Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra in dealing with their […]




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