Shut down Bangkok scenarios

9 01 2014

In a report at The Nation, the plans for the 13 January blockade of Bangkok are explained, drawing on anonymous “security sources,” apparently from both the military and civilian security agencies.

The report begins by stating that the shutdown “is intended to trigger military intervention in the ongoing political stalemate…”.

The anti-democracy movement:

plans to mobilise 35,000 people from seven southern provinces to shut down seven locations in the capital on Monday to paralyse Yingluck Shinawatra’s caretaker administration…. They noted that some middle-class people in Bangkok might join in, but the southerners are the core of the operation.

An unnamed source say: … [the] first phase – the first two days of the shutdown – would cause the operations not only of government agencies but also of many businesses to cease…”. This was to be followed by a “second stage, on the third and fourth days, would see a chaotic situation develop, as people in the blockaded areas in the capital struggled to find their way in and out…”. A third and final stage, “if the chaos lasted for more than four days, many people such as taxi drivers and street vendors who cannot earn their daily living might riot. There could also be clashes among groups of people in many locations…”.

In these circumstances, “[o]nly the military has the manpower and equipment to handle such a situation, he [the source] said, adding that heavy military hardware has already been moved into the capital.”

That’s the military coup scenario.

Another source thought that the military’s role would be to “act as a stabiliser to maintain a balance of power in the political scene…. What the military will do is to prevent any parties such as police and unknown elements … from using violence…”.

This source added that: “Yingluck’s caretaker government will try its best not to resort to violence to handle the protest, as the government knows that violence will lead to a military intervention. The red-shirt group would not come to Bangkok to confront the protesters…”.

PPT guesses this has been the “threat/deal” since late December: if red shirts are mobilized, the military will intervene.

This source didn’t expect a military coup, but expected that: “the elements that would bring Yingluck’s government down are constitutionally mandated independent organisations such as the Constitutional Court and the anti-graft agency…”. By this the source means the kangaroo courts and agencies that are part of the royalist anti-democracy movement.

That’s the judicial coup scenario.


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14 01 2014
Protest news | Political Prisoners in Thailand

[…] at Suthep’s rallies yesterday were relatively small, but as noted earlier, the anti-democracy movement only planned to “mobilise 35,000 people from seven southern […]

14 01 2014
Protest news | Political Prisoners of Thailand

[…] at Suthep’s rallies yesterday were relatively small, but as noted earlier, the anti-democracy movement only planned to “mobilise 35,000 people from seven southern […]