Further updated: What is the rumor?

17 12 2014

The Bangkok Post reports that the “Stock Exchange of Thailand says it found no irregularities in Monday’s stock plunge as battered Thai shares Tuesday extended their six-day skid” of about 10% since 8 December. It cites several possible contributing factors and then states “[a]n undisclosed local rumour and the tumbling oil price prompted the selling spree.”

In fact, the undisclosed is disclosed. Prachatai, citing the ultra-royalist ASTV, states the:

Thai junta on Tuesday accused a Thai journalist living in self-exile of spreading rumours about the Thai King’s health, which caused the Stock Exchange of Thailand to plunge dramatically on Monday.

Maj Gen Sansern Kaewkamnerd, Army and government spokesman, said the rumour about the King’s health was spread by Jom Petpradab, a veteran journalist now living in self-exile in the US.

In fact, PPT hasn’t followed Job, but we were also pretty sure that the SET trading was due to two things: that the king is so unwell that he is unable to operate; and related, that the succession has begun. Several of our recent posts about the “royal divorce” have indicated our guesses about this.

Because the media is so opaque and self-censoring on these things it is difficult to find evidence that is in any way solid. However, it seems pretty clear to us that the prince is preparing for his reign. That might be a cause for the sell-off as much as claims that the king is dead (or just resting).

Update 1: Another take on the rumors is provided by the Bangkok Post’s reporter assigned to the military, Wassana Nanuam, who claims several domestic rumors: General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh talking about a possible “counter-coup”; that the military dictatorship “might invalidate 1,000-baht banknotes in a bid to wipe out corrupt politicians and officials who keep all their money in cash”; an “internal conflict within the NCPO and between the NCPO and the ‘old powers’, a reference to soldiers loyal to Privy Council president Gen Prem Tinsulanonda”; and, finally, although it is not quite stated as a rumor, “concern about His Majesty the King’s health…”.

Update 2: Prachatai has a story citing journalist Jom Petpradab mentioned above. He is reported to have issued “a statement released on Wednesday [stating] that he was very upset and worried with the allegation from the junta that he spreaded [sic.] the rumour which caused the biggest single-day loss in six years at the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).” He said that the story, “The inside story of the divorce between the Crown Prince and Mom Srirasmi,” which was published on Thai Voice Media website on 13 December 2014, “was initiated because he noticed that most of the public have sympathy for the former royal consort, so he intended to correct the popular misunderstanding about the divorce.” He states that he had “high level sources in the palace.” One of those sources stated that the “divorce” was done in “preparation for the succession. The source also speculated that the succession will take place during the military regime.”


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