30 07 2016

TIME magazine has a long story on the military’s referendum. It doesn’t say much that readers would not already know.

However, it does present some views on likely outcomes. Readers may consider the view of academic Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University. He is quoted as saying:

By all accounts, the referendum will be approved because the law and the bureaucratic apparatus have been mobilized to ram it through. A rejection would be a huge blow to the military government and a bare exposure of its lack of legitimacy….

Yet there is an outside chance of rejection because the two main […] parties — the Pheu Thai and Democrats, respectively — are against it.

Thitinan is usually well-connected and presumably hears views from within the elite and regime.

Polls seem less clear. If Thitinan is right that the military regime’s repressive campaign will be successful, as The Dictator seems to believe, then Thailand’s chances for democratic politics are set back by many years.