Jaran Ditapichai, from The Organisation of Free Thai for Human Rights and Democracy and a political exile in France, having fled lese majeste charges, has an article at EurActiv.com on human rights in Thailand.
He says the human rights situation is “likely to get worse before they get better…”.
Jaran takes the view that the “special circumstances surrounding the succession” mean human rights abuses will grow.
A “marriage of convenience” between the military regime and Crown Prince Vajiralongkorm will be in control for “an extended period, under the pretext of stabilising the country, and a return to democracy will be delayed to 2018 or later.”
The new king, when he eventually succeeds, will be “unpredictable and will not have the aura of his father, so the military regime will clamp down even further to ensure that no negative views are expressed on his reign…”.
Since the king’s death, “police have so far prosecuted some 23 people for lèse majesté.”
The military-monarchy twinning and “paused royal succession” will see “the military regime continue to destroy or undermine all democratic forces…”.
He’s pretty much spot on.