Updated: Disorganized, disorganizing and an election date

We were just about to post the story that was to appear below when breaking news stated this:

Thailand will hold a general election in November 2018, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said on Tuesday, the most precise date he has given yet for the vote since taking power in a 2014 military coup.

Prayuth, head of the ruling junta or National Council for Peace and Order, said the exact election date would be announced in June 2018. The junta has repeatedly delayed elections, citing concerns such as changes to the constitution and security issues.

“Around June we will announce the date for the next election,” Prayuth told reporters at Bangkok’s Government House.

“In November we will have an election.”

Update: The junta has actually blinked or it has come under sustained pressure. It was only a few days ago that military dictator General Prayuth Chan-ocha signed a Joint Statement between the United States of America and the Kingdom of Thailand that vowed: “Thailand’s commitment to the Roadmap, which, upon completion of relevant organic laws as stipulated by the Constitution, will lead to free and fair elections in 2018.”

Within hours, General Prayuth had corrected “misconceptions” declaring that 2018 really meant 2019. Other members of the junta supported him. Now, there a back-flip and, as noted above, The Dictator has changed his mind and 2018 from now on will mean 2018. But why the back-flip? We don’t know. Some suggest it is because of pressure from political parties. Others say the army is split. Some others say that royalists are convinced that an election under the junta’s rules will produce a pro-junta regime, and having a rigged election will satisfy the “democratic” demands in Europe and the US and that Thailand will look better once it can ditch the military dictatorship moniker.

In making this back-flip, Prayuth loses considerable face, so expect outbursts against opponents. Perhaps even more regime repression and jailings.

The Bangkok Post earlier reported some of the consternation. Constitution Drafting Committee Chairman Meechai Ruchupan, who is a regime lackey, said he believed the time was right “to revoke the ban [on political parties] this week so parties could resume their political activities.” This recommendation to the junta, which met just prior to a cabinet meeting, seems to have reflected pressure being applied in other quarters for a transition away from military dictatorship.

The junta certainly appears disorganized. At the same time, if the ban on political parties remains, “election” delays will continue. In this sense, the junta is disorganizing those who may compete against its candidates (however it decides to manage its “election”).

On top of all of this, Prayuth, if he is feeling more powerful than he is today, could always postpone again.