Further updated: Junta disorganized or just organizing

14 06 2018

We are beginning to wonder if the military junta is factionalizing as it gets both excited and frosty about its “election.” Organizing, vacuuming and spending are growing hot while some in the junta are decidedly cold about the whole idea. Or so it seems. Is it that orders also flow to the junta and that these are not especially clear?

After saying it wouldn’t, the junta is now said to be “set to hold its first meeting with politicians at the end of this month…”.

In the first linked report, from just a few days ago, one of the lonely civilians associated with the junta, Wissanu Krea-ngam, cast doubt on the “pressing need for talks,” which he said has “subsided.” He then said the junta “remains adamant they will happen.” But he couldn’t say when.

Now Deputy Dictator Gen Prawit Wongsuwan says the talks are back on, and on schedule.

Prawit says The Dictator has assigned him to “chair the first meeting with political parties and the Election Commission to discuss which activities the politicians would be allowed to undertake prior to the election scheduled for February next year.”

Wissanu had also cast doubt on February as an election date.

But Prawit was clear that it was the junta that would tell the parties what they could do and that that wouldn’t be much. Certainly, campaigning will continue to be banned (except for The Dictator himself) and political meetings remain off the agenda.

“Election” delays remain highly likely. We are guessing April at the earliest although the junta will delay if it believes its parties can’t “win” its own rigged elections.

Update 1: The Nation reports that Wissanu met with puppet “legislators, charter drafters and the Election Commission … to seek solutions to problems arising from NCPO Order 53/2560, which amends the Political Party Act,” but that the meeting saw no solution to the junta’s decision to prevent political parties from getting organized. It passed the ball back to The Dictator, suggesting he use Article 44 to “temporarily allow political parties to seek new members…”.

Update 2: The reports on lifting bans on political party activities and on local elections are confusing and contradictory. Take reports in The Nation and the Bangkok Post as examples. The headlines on each story are directly contradictory. Reporting the same doorstop press conference with the Deputy Dictator, one says bans are to be lifted and the other says bans are to stay. Reading these accounts it seems that the ban stays until all “election” related laws are passed into law. What isn’t clear is how long that will take. On local elections, the EC says if they are held, this should be three months before the national “election.” Those elections also await laws being passed. It is anyone’s guess what dates are being considered by the junta.



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