Elections, winners

7 01 2019

Still no news on an election date and no sign of a royal decree on the election.

Meanwhile, there’s quite a lot of seemingly sudden recognition that the outcome is likely to less than optimal.

The Bangkok Post reports that most politicians, including those from the junta’s devil party, are predicting an outcome that will be potentially messy.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva covered all bases:

a party winning more than half of the 500 MP seats at stake and governing solo; parties huddling together to form a government with a House majority; and parties left locked in disagreement while a few of them attempt to set up a minority coalition administration … [and] a government with a parliamentary minority is not totally out of the question, but it would suffer from enormous internal instability.

Meanwhile, “figures with the pro-regime Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) … agree that a post-election government may not last for very long as the administration might be made up of several medium-sized parties prone to bickering and disunity.”

Most analysts still predict that Puea Thai and its allied parties will likely win most seats, but not sufficient to form government.

Back to the early 1990…? But as another article in the Bangkok Post reports, the miltiary will win no matter what the “election” outcome. It states: “The military will continue to play an important role in Thai politics this year, regardless of whether or not Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha returns as premier after the general election.”

The military will campaign hard for The Dictator, but this role also puts it in every community and village in the country, embedding the power it has grabbed since the 2014 coup.

Its relationship with the king also increases its power and prestige. Its role in the now notorious coronation will increase its profile, along with that of the military leader Gen Apirat Kongsompong.

He’s already threatening (for his boss, The Dictator): “The poll results must be accepted, no matter who wins or loses…”. He’s got two years more to serve as army boss, so his support for The Dictator following an “election” is pretty much set.

And if all else fails, as Gen Apirat has warned, another coup is possible.


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