Another coup rat hole?

27 09 2022

Thai Enquirer has been following a story that developed after Digital Economy and Society Minister Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn warned of/about another military coup.

Chaiwut was moved to declare that “if a lot of people come out to protest on September 30th to seek the removal of the suspended Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, there might be no election at all.” He said this not once but twice. Clearly he meant that there could be yet another military coup.

As Erich Parpart put it:

The fact that these statements are coming out is a clear indication of how the 2014 coup leaders manipulated the system to remain in power and are now threatening to silence opposition in order to continue to remain in power.

In this society that is being run by a pro-military government, Chaiwaut’s comments were a reassurance to their supporters that the hideous cycle of coups will continue if the people in power do not like the way how things are going against them.

Since then, “Thailand’s rumor mills were running overtime…”.

One academic-like commentator Thanaporn Sriyakul, president of the Political Science Association at Kasetsart University, said:

If there is an election, Pheu Thai will win and one of the ways to stop that from happening is to stop the election from happening….

They [the regime and its supporters] know that if they fight on this battlefield they will lose and they also do not know what is going to happen to them after the battle so what they can do now is to delay the election to buy more time for negotiations….

Thanaporn reckoned Chaiwut was not just blowing hot air: “I do not believe that Chaiwut was just joking around…”. Maybe not a coup, he said, but maybe other “legal” measures to delay an election. Whatever means, “there will be no election at the moment…”.

At the same time, Chaiwut’s comments showed he believes and perhaps knows that “Prayut will survive the Constitutional Court’s verdict on his 8-year premiership term limit that would be handed down on September 30.”

In a complicated situation, Chaiwat has probably expressed the “thinking” among the regime and its supporters.


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