Elections and the reform protesters I

The Diplomat updates on the thinking and activities of monarchy reform protesters in the context of an upcoming election: “the general election will be the first since the 2020-2021 protests, leaving the door open to a hopeful democratic consolidation, or further consolidation of control by Thailand’s conservative elites.”

Yean Arunpreechawat is cited as concluding that “the monarchy as the main factor behind [Gen] Prayut[h Chan-ocha]’s lasting popularity in Thailand today: “Most people have grown tired of [Prayut’s] economic mismanagement, but will continue to vote for him so long as he gets the support from the King…”. Yean forgets the military and the tycoons in this assessment (at least as quoted), and we doubt the monarchy has this much impact on votes – Thaksin Shinawatra proved that.

From DW

We think Get Surariddhidhamrong gets closer to the mark: “Political viability relies on the monarchy, which makes it harder for political parties to seek a platform independent from monarchical approval … the people must rise up against this and drive this change so that political parties can take the next steps.”

Meanwhile, in the context of a new generation of voters, Sirabhob Attohi makes the important point about “the crucial role played by the protests in introducing Thai youths to the country’s decades-old democracy movement.” Sirabhob observes:

Many of us were too young when the Red Shirts protests started, or even during the 2010 protests. In this sense, this was our generation’s awakening, it helped us realize we can strive to demand better for our democracy and our society.

Get’s observation on the deep structural roots of royalist conservatism:

… the current political offer remains unable to address the most pressing issues facing Thailand’s fragile democracy today. “The rule of law needs to be restored before youths can trust the government again, and this can only be addressed through structural change…”.

Uprooting that is difficult when conservatives, with the military and monarchy, oppose change.