Pavlov’s police dogs

28 06 2021

Pavlov trained – conditioned – animals. Pavlov’s dogs refers to the experiments he did in conditioning dogs to salivate through a learning process that results from this pairing, through which the neutral stimulus comes to elicit a salivation response that usually provoked by the potent stimulus of food. 

In Thailand’s politics, Pavlovian conditioning is common. As lawfare has become the regime’s basic response to critics, the police have become the regime’s equivalent of Pavlov’s dogs.

Pavlov's dog

From SimplyPsychology

So it is that when opponents rally, the police salivate, investigate, and seek charges.

On the weekend, two, small demonstrations were held, with Jatuporn Promphan, “leader of the United People for Thailand pro-democracy group … vow[ing] to topple Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s regime within three months.”

Salivating on cue, Metropolitan Police Bureau Deputy Commissioner Pol Maj Gen Piya Tawichai said the leaders of the rallies would all face investigation and charges.

He said those “targeted include Nitithon Lamlua, leader of the Prachachon Khon Thai group, and Jatuporn Prompan, of the Samakkhi Prachachon group.”

The policeman stated that these people would be charged with: calling for The Dictator to step down “organising a gathering which risked spreading diseases in violation of the executive decree; violating the Communicable Disease Act; violating the Public Cleanliness Act by leaving materials on the roads; obstructing traffic and violating the Land Traffic Act; and using loudspeakers without permission in violation of the Advertising Control Act.”

We assume the cops will be adequately rewarded to imprint the response.





Protesting on 24 June

22 06 2021

cropped-1932-plaqueThe regime’s police are warning protesters that they should not rally on 24 June. They are relying on the Emergency Decree but will also be looking to arrest rally leaders for lese majeste and sedition.

Protest groups are lining up to rally on the day that marks the 1932 revolution.

The New Generation of Democratic People of Nonthaburi is planning to demonstrate at the Democracy Monument at about 11am, demanding that the government resign. Another group – Samakkhi Prachachon – is led by red shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan, which plans to rally at Government House. A third group is planning to demonstrate at the October 14 Memorial at about 1pm. A fourth group – Prachachon Khon Thai – led by yellow shirt Nittithon Lamlua, also plans to rally in front of Government House at about noon. The latter group is calling for Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha to stand down.

In warning protesters, Pol Maj Gen Piya Tawichai said:

Those taking part in the protests should avoid gathering in large numbers. They might benefit from the political protests but the country as a whole will suffer from their action.

They should consider staging the rallies after the pandemic has subsided….

We doubt they would let anyone protest then, either.

Interestingly, Pol Col Kissana Phathanacharoen, a deputy police spokesman, has revealed “that since July 2020 a total of 150 people have been arrested on charges in connection with political rallies. They included people who instigated illegal gatherings over social media.”





Moving Prayuth

26 05 2021

The Bangkok Post reports on a recent media event where the red-yellow anti-government group, Samakkhi Prachachon, came together again to demand that Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha “resign for poor governance over the past seven years.”

Prayuth gunning for democracy

The group, led by Adul Khiewboriboon and Jatuporn Prompan handed over a letter that “accused Gen Prayut of failing to fulfil his promises, adding he failed to achieve reforms and reconciliation, while political conflicts have worsened and corruption has increased.” Of course, from the day of the 2014 military coup, these were false promises.

Observing that “Gen Prayut had claimed he remained in power to protect the royal institution,” they claimed his use of Article 112 was “to destroy his political opponents.” Of course, the link between military and monarchy has become almost unbreakable and defines political power and action.

Interestingly, Jatuporn “called on Gen Prayut to follow in the footsteps of the late Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, who turned down a request to remain as prime minister after holding office for eight years.” He kind of mishmashes history. Prem was essentially brought down in a campaign for an elected prime minister and by wavering support in the military.

Prem and Prayuth

In fact, though, for all of his failings, those who supported the coup got exactly what they wanted. Gen Prayuth remains in power, though unelected, through the support of unelected, junta-appointed senators, put in place by a constitution that rigged the political system and election laws and a politicized and biased Election Commission that rigged the 2019 election outcome. That rigged system is supported by a Constitutional Court that is remarkably biased to the extent that it appears to fall in line with the regime as if it is an arm of government.

In such a system, moving Prayuth requires splits in the regime or a major political crisis that shatters the military-monarchy-bureaucracy alliance.





All about repression

8 04 2021

Yesterday, it was reported by the Bangkok Post that “[a]n adviser to the House Committee on Law …[had] filed a complaint with police against protest leader Jatuporn Prompan for allegedly violating the lese majeste law.”

The culprit is Sonthiya Sawasdee, who “asked police at Chana Songkhram station to look into Mr Jatuporn’s speech that he delivered on Sunday at the Santiporn Park … — where he held a mass protest for the Sammakhi Prachachon Pheu Prathet Thai (People’s Unity for Thailand) — to see if it violated the lese majeste law.”

The protest was in fact held to demand the resignation of coup leader and Prime Minister Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, and as far as we could tell, tried to avoid commentary on the monarchy.

Still, royalist “protector” and regime lackey Sonthiya said “he believed Mr Jatuporn’s speech violated the lese majeste law but added that it was up to the police to decide whether or not to press charges against him.” Quite oddly and in the face of all evidence, Sonthiya claimed “[t]he authorities enforced the lese majeste law out of good intentions to create peace in the country…”.

In fact, we all know that the use of 112 is as a tool of political repression.

That repression is the regime’s main task is is illustrated by another Bangkok Post today which has police summoning 36 people “involved in Sunday’s protest … to answer a slew of charges that could also include lese majeste.” The report states that:112

Red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan, who organised the mass gathering on behalf of the “Thai Mai Thon (Impatient Thais)” group and Adul Khiewboriboon, leader of the Samakkhi Prachachon group, will be among 14 people summoned to meet investigators and answer charges next Thursday, Pol Maj Gen Piya Tawichai, deputy commissioner of the Metropolitan Police Bureau said on Wednesday.

The other 14 people will be summoned to answer charges the following day, he said.

Twelve other people who had a role in the rally at Santiporn Park that spilled over into Monday were also found to have violated several laws and will soon be summoned to face charges as well, he said.

Pol Maj Gen Piya “reiterated that all public gatherings are now considered unlawful under the emergency decree and the disease control law, being implemented to contain the spread of Covid-19.”

This is an increasingly bizarre claim, but one that’s been made several times. In fact, it is ministers slipping off to bars for a bit of sexual stimulation and gratification is demonstrably a more serious virus threat, as is poor policy. and bizarre behavior.

In any case this emergency decree has mainly been used as another tool for political repression.

Police confirmed that they are “examining a recording of a speech Mr Jatuporn delivered at Sunday’s gathering to determine whether comments made violated Section 112 of the Criminal Code…”.

By our rough calculations, there are currently about 80 active lese majeste cases and another 30-40 “under investigation.”





Updated: Jatuporn, Nattawut and the protests

4 04 2021

Today, the recently erratic official red shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan is tentatively rallying his supporters to oppose Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha. This is surprising and somewhat difficult to understand.

Part of the reason why this is a surprise is that, as we observed back in January, United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship leader Jatuporn had been saying some odd political things and seemed to have had a political meltdown, as enthusiastically reported by Thai PBS. Part of the meltdown involved a dispute with Thaksin Shinawatra over local elections.

Jatuporn

Jatuporn

As everyone knows, Jatuporn has a long pedigree as a political activist dating back to the 1992 uprising against another military power grab. For his leadership of red shirts, he had faced numerous criminal charges and several arrests and served 19 months in jail when a court found him guilty of defaming the reprehensible former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva who led the regime that murdered red shirts in 2010. Jatuporn’s defamation was to aptly label Abhisit “a murderer” who “order[ed] the shooting dead of the protesters.”

Despite his history of political activism, his recent outbursts saw Jatuporn labeled a “traitor” and “lackey of the military.” There was muffled cheering from royalists when Jatuporn suggested that the UDD be disbanded and that the student protesters should refrain from calling for reform to the monarchy.

All of that had observers scratching their heads when Jatuporn urged the public to join a political forum at Santiporn Park to “kick-start a campaign to find ways to end Gen Prayut’s prolonged stay in power.”

According to Jatuporn, “the forum is organised by a support group for relatives of the Black May 1992 victims,” and he hopes it leads to a sustained campaign against Gen Prayuth. He even called on former political opponents – yellow shirts – to join if they opposed Gen Prayuth.

Thai PBS reports that Jatuporn “is proposing to bring Prayut down as well as write a ‘people’s constitution’.” He is cited:

Jatuporn blames the prime minister for the current aggressive deployment of the kingdom’s draconian lèse majesté law against activists, which just worsens the political crisis. He reiterated that this is all the more reason why Prayut must go.

To avoid more violence and casualties, as seen in recent demonstrations, Jatuporn said that either Prayut must step down or the coalition parties must withdraw from the government.

Jatuporn says that his “new group of political activists is called Samakee Prachachon, which literally translates as ‘the people united’, to support an end to the current divide and rule strategy, wherein the Prayut regime exploits political division to hang on to political power.”

Today’s event has led to much speculation.

Thai PBS reports that Jatuporn is responding “to the call, by Adul Khieuboriboon, leader of the relatives of the victims of the ‘Black May’ event in 1992, for mass protests.”

On the right, there have been mixed responses. Some thought that an anti-regime movement that did not attack the monarchy might have political traction, whereas other rightists thought that Jatuporn remained Thaksin’s puppet.

One of the mouthpieces of the anti-Thaksinistas, former ideologue at The Nation and now writing op-eds for Thai PBS, Tulsathit Taptim, describes Jatuporn “ unpredictable” and asks: “Who is Jatuporn working for?” He promotes the idea that Jatuporn “has patched things up with Thaksin…” and that Thaksin wants to move now to prevent the regime further embedding itself through the (rigged) election processes:

The Thaksin-Jatuporn theory means Prayut will face a two-pronged attack. The current youngster-led campaign will go on, dealing with all kinds of sensitive subjects such as Article 112. Jatuporn’s army, whose size remains to be seen, will deal with the prime minister directly and push for relatively less sensitive constitutional changes like the origin and powers of the Senate. One of rare positives for Prayut in this case is that a Thaksin-Jatuporn combination would keep the Democrats more firmly in the fold.

Thaksin’s name will return to the center stage, according to this popular theory….

Meanwhile, pro-democracy protester leaders told Thai Enquirer that while “the student-led movement have not yet to discussed whether or not it would join a rally called by Jatuporn,” ousting Gen Prayuth was also one of the movement’s goals. However, the students said there “should be no division [between the groups]…”.

In other words, the students insisted the attention to the monarchy to remain. Benjar Apun, a protest leader from the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration (UFTD) said:

We will not interfere with what they are doing…but our goals are aligned, with or without the demand to reform the institution….

However, the UFTD will continue to demand for the reformation of the royal institution and Jatuporn’s movement also do not have the right to interfere with this demand….

She said her group would consider joining the rally but would never drop their demands to reform the institution [monarchy].

In line with that, it is interesting to observe that Nattawut Saikua, another UDD leader, just out of jail and just this week off electronic tagging, said that he “had no plans to reunite with Mr Jatuporn…”.

Jatuporn-nattawutt

Nattawut and Jatuporn in red shirt days

However, on Tuesday, he called on the “government to release pro-democracy protesters from jail and seek a peaceful resolution to the political conflict.” He then went on to affirm that “sovereign power in the country belonged to the people as everyone is equal.”

He noted that he had been charged, arrested and jailed several times, saying: “I have no regrets over the path I chose. I have been sentenced to jail three times, but I can handle it if I have to face such punishment again.”

Nattawut reaffirmed his support for the pro-democracy protesters, saying:

The country can’t move forward if the new generation is still in jail, so the government should talk with the [young protesters] to seek a peaceful solution for the country….

These two red shirt leaders might have different aims, but the thrust of their current words and activity may further promote political struggle.

Update: Few of the mainstream media reported on the rally last night – perhaps it finished too late for stories to be filed? That said, the rally was livestreamed by various outlets, including Voice TV. Various reports were of a few hundred to 3,000 attending. Based on the broadcast PPT saw, it was very much a red shirt crowd and certainly much grey hair was evident.

Thai Enquirer did editorialize:

Jatuporn’s position also means that he is estrange politically. Having moved way from the Pheu Thai Party, Jatuporn has no ready allies in parliament. Move Forward, Palang Pracharat, Bhumjai Thai all have reason to not engage with the former red shirt leader. Ironically the party most closely aligned to his views might be the Democrat Party, the very party he once took to the streets to try to overthrow.

It is unclear how much traction this new movement will gain in the coming weeks and months or whether it will at all.

But what is clear is that if Jatuporn wants to create a stir and regain the support he once had, he is going to have his work cut out for him.





Updated: Jatuporn’s meltdown

13 01 2021

One of the not very well hidden tasks of the regime, sometimes supported by the mainstream media, has been to nitpick at the protest movement and exacerbate divisions and differences.

That follows a tested junta tactic of trying to divide and conquer former opponents in Puea Thai and among red shirts. This involved buying off red shirt leaders like the detestable Suporn Atthawong, who has been rewarded with legal cases dropped and lucrative positions. Those turncoats have assisted the military junta to transform into the current post-junta regime.

A more activist Jatuporn

Over the past couple of months we have watched United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, leader Jatuporn Promphan say some odd things and, finally, have a meltdown. His story is told by a seemingly gleeful Thai PBS.

Jatuporn’s role as a red shirt protest leader resulted in numerous criminal charges and several arrests, and he eventually served 19 months in jail when a court found him guilty of defaming the reprehensible former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva who led the regime that murdered red shirts. Jatuporn’s defamation was to call Abhisit “a murderer” who “order[ed] the shooting dead of the protesters.”

He was also seen court orders for 100 million baht “in civil rulings stemming from riots and arson attacks by red-shirt protesters.” We won’t go back over the details of these false charges. In addition, he faces charges of “terrorism, illegal phone-tapping, and provoking public disorder, as well as other libel offences.”

Many activists looked differently at Jatuporn when, in July 2020, he “warned student activists not to cross a line, by infringing upon the [m]onarchy…”.  Some took this as a warning that the students should be wary of yet another murderous military attack on protesters. Others, however, wondered why Jatuporn appeared to be defending the monarchy. Many red shirts who joined with the student demonstrators calling for monarchy reform were stunned by Jatuporn’s statements.

In September 2020, his commentary was taken up in an op-ed by the notorious anti-democrat journalist Tulsathit Taptim who used Jatuporn’s “advice” to demonstrators to call for them to back down. Referring to campaigns against royalists, it was stated:

According to Jatuporn, it is all right for dictators to seek to destroy or suppress opposite or different opinions because it’s what they do. But it’s not democratic, he says, if minority or unpopular opinions are condemned, insulted or forced to undergo changes.

Oddly, in 2010 and during the Yingluck Shinawatra government, it was Jatuporn who was accused by yellow shirts of supporting “majoritarianism” – in this case, supporting an elected government.

Two further outbursts by Jatuporn suggest that he has had a political meltdown. He has seen increasing opposition from former comrades, with accusations that he is a “traitor” and “lackey of the military.”

Staggeringly, Jatuporn has called for the UDD “to disband and pass the baton on to the young-generation protesters now battling for democracy. That push drew another barrage of criticism – this time that he was betraying fellow red shirts.” Some wondered aloud about Jatuporn’s motives and asked why, in 2014, the red shirts went off stage with a whimper. Was Jatuporn complicit in demobilizing red shirts? Some disgruntled observers suggested that Jatuporn’s paymaster had changed.

Then, he drew more criticism when he campaigned for the re-election of Chiang Mai’s provincial administrative organisation (PAO) chief, Boonlert Buranupakorn, himself considered a turncoat. Boonlert lost to a Puea Thai candidate who also had Thaksin Shinawatra’s support. Even other red shirt leaders spoke out against Jatuporn.

Just a few days ago, Jatuporn’s meltdown and slide to the other side was illustrated when he filed “a police complaint against some 200 netizens he accused of posting false information and defamatory abuse against him” during the [PAO] election campaign.”

Jatuporn said the “online attacks part of a concerted attempt to destroy his reputation,” something he seems to be doing for himself. Sounding like the regime’s nastiest of lying, cheating politicans, he vowed “many hundred more cases.” He seems to be taking a leaf out of Thammanat Prompao’s playbook.

We can understand that all those legal cases and the threat of more jail must weigh heavily, but it does seem that Jatuporn is doing the regime’s work.

Update: Khaosod has more on the UDD. It concludes with comments by red shirt activist Anurak Jeantawanich, saying “he would oppose any attempt to dissolve the UDD.” He correctly points out that “the large number of Redshirt protesters at anti-government rallies in 2020 prove that the movement is still a force to reckon with, and what the UDD needs is a new leadership with new strategies.” He adds: “Redshirts are against the dissolution of the UDD,” he said, citing an informal online survey that he conducted. “

As for Jatuporn, Anurak states: “I don’t want to use the word fired, but I’d like to ask him to leave.”





Updated: Going to the dark side

3 11 2020

Two seemingly odd stories today, both with political implications.

First, PDRC’s Digital Economy and Society Minister Buddhipongse Punnakanta is reported at the Bangkok Post as being under attack “after his ministry blocked access to Pornhub, a well-known adult website based outside the country.” According to the report:

The ministry on Monday ordered all internet providers and mobile phone operators to ban all access to the website after the Criminal Court gave the ministry the green light to take action, because porn websites are illegal in Thailand.

Of course, there are millions of porn sites that might be banned in Thailand, so why this one? Social media chatter is that Pornhub is banned because it has the video of the king’s former wife, almost naked at her 30th birthday. For those who want to watch it, it is revealing of the former Princess Srirasmi, but far more revealing of the king’s weirdness.

Second, after he went bonkers royalist a few weeks ago, Jatuporn Promphan’s latest rant suggests that the former United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) leader  has been bribed, is being blackmailed or has gone completely nuts.

According to a media report, he’s “raised questions about the construction of a new US consular office in Thailand’s northern capital of Chiang Mai…”. His claims are bizarre and place him in the camp of the most extreme yellow shirts. That camp is the dark side.

Update: In a sign of how much things have changed, it is reported in The Nation that Buddhipongse has declared “that the decision was not related to a clip featuring an important Thai personality that was posted on the website.” Everyone knows he’s talking about the king and his former wife, the latter having been treated loathsomely by the former.





Saturday’s rally II

20 09 2020

There’s plenty of news reports about the ongoing, sometimes soggy, rally at Sanam Luang, including: The Nation, The Isaan Record on Facebook, The Guardian, The New York Times, Andrew MacGregor Marshall’s Facebook page, BBC, and many more.

At one point, speakers on the stage reckoned 200,000 had showed up, but that seems a considerable stretch, especially as the police, military and other authorities worked hard to disrupt, preventing people from traveling, and threatening. And, the inclement weather didn’t help.

Clipped from the Bangkok Post

One of the most confronting activity of the rally was Arnon Nampa’s call for a new People’s Party, with a march planned for today. Another was the outpouring of red shirts adding their support to the rally and seemingly rejecting Jatuporn Promphan’s royalist bleating.

They cheered Arnon’s “fiery speech” around midnight where he said “demonstrators on Sunday morning will install a new plaque commemorating the 1932 Revolution that overthrew absolute monarchy” after the previous one was removed by authorities. He declared:

Today, the 2020 People’s Party has officially been formed at this people’s field…. Tomorrow the plaque will be planted. The second People’s Party declaration will be read. All of us will be free.

In Thai he actually said quite a bit more that the Bangkok Post won’t report:

เราจะประกาศร่วมกันด้วยข้อความว่า ประเทศนี้เป็นของราษฎรทั้งผอง ไม่ใช่เป็นของสถาบันกษัตริย์อย่างที่เขาหลอกลวง เพราะวันนี้คณะราษฎร 2563 ได้เกิดขึ้นที่สนามราษฎรแล้ว

Roughly translated:

Together we declare that this country belongs to all of the people. Not to the monarchy as we have been deceived [into believing]. Because today the People’s Party 2020 has been born at the People’s Field.

As we write, school students are on stage speaking about demands for reform of the monarchy.





Further updated: Saturday’s rally I

18 09 2020

With heavy rain predicted, the rally planned for Saturday may be dampened. That said, there’s plenty of media coverage of what to expect.

There are citizen reports that police and military are preventing people from the provinces joining the protest.

One useful set of observations is provided by Prachatai a couple of days ago. Associated Press has a story that claims there are “jangling nerves in Bangkok, with apprehension about how far student demonstrators will go in pushing demands for reform of Thailand’s monarchy and how the authorities might react.”

Clipped from Khaosod

While AP says that “organizers plan to march to Government House, the prime minister’s offices, to hand over petitions,” this is no longer true as Khaosod reports that the protesters “will not go to the Government House,” [with a] … coordinator, who only identified herself as View, [saying] … “I can’t tell you just now where we will march to.”

Khaosod also reports on regime preparations:

Riot police are prepared to use force against the protesters should they fail to steer clear of the royal properties on Saturday, according to an internal document obtained by Khaosod English.

The 110-page document was reportedly prepared by the Metropolitan Police Bureau and used in a recent briefing with multiple police agencies. The plan calls for deployment of riot police to defend strategic choke points around the Grand Palace, the Royal Plaza, and Chitralada Royal Villa in Bangkok during the two-day protest planned for this weekend.

The Government House, the target of the demonstration on Sunday morning, is also declared out of bounds by police.

While the police rejected the document as belonging to them, this seems a ruse. Its details are scary and dumb (or, if one is conspiratorial, strategic) in making “royal properties” a target for anyone who wishes to generate violence. The document lists responses planned:

Riot dispersal gears such as shotguns, rubber bullets, tear gas canisters, acoustic control devices, and water trucks are ordered to be on standby for deployment, according to the alleged document. Drone jamming equipment and “anti-sniper” squads will be deployed as well.

“Anti-sniper” squads seems to mean that police snipers may be in place. Back in 2010, snipers were used against protesters and to take out particular targets, with some 200,000 rounds of ammunition, including 500 sniper rounds used in military operations in April and May 2010. Other reports were of thousands of sniper rounds used.

For international reports: BBC, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times.

Update 1: Khaosod’s report on “royal properties.” Deputy PM Gen Prawit Wongsuwan has said: “Don’t go to the Royal Plaza…. [Police] will have to defend it…”. He was supported by recent convert to royalism Jatuporn Promphan, who “warned the protesters against crossing the point of no return by stepping into the royal grounds.”

Assistant national police commissioner, Lt. Gen. Damrongsak Kittiprapat, says “57 companies of riot police, or 8,550 men, were mobilized from around the country to handle this weekend’s protest.”

Update 2: More on Jatuporn’s royalism.





Targeting monarchy and regime

10 09 2020

With continuing reports that rights/police/military are continuing to dampen support for anti-monarchists, students from the United Front of Thammasat have made it clear that they will continue to “discuss” the monarchy at their rallies, including the one planned for 19 September. The date coincides with the date of the 2006 military coup.

That rally will begin at the downtown Thammasat University campus. In a pointed reference to the king’s seizing of properties in the area, the protesters say they will “seize Sanam Luang back for the people,” camp there overnight, and then will “march to Government House on the following day and submit a petition to PM [Gen] Prayut Chan-o-cha’s administration…”.

After decades of being a public place, officially under the control of the Bangkoj City administration, Sanam Luang has been closed to the public and fenced since the cremation of the late king.

Activist Parit Chiwarak “confirmed the monarchy will definitely be the subject of discussion at the rally.” He reportedly stated:

For Thammasat, we have been clear about freedom. We will talk about every issue.  We will touch on the Institution (Monarchy). We broke the ceiling on August 10th to open it to the sky.  We will not allow anyone to close it again. The ten proposals (for the reform of the Monarchy) are nothing new.  They have been around for a decade.  I believe the people will agree with us.  The masses will decide victory this time….

Khaosod says that Penguin was criticizing “a comment by an ex-leader of the Redshirt movement, Jatuporn Prompan, who warned the students not to ‘break the ceiling’ by touching the monarchy. Jatuporn said doing so might end up paving a way for another military coup.”

With more than a week to pass before the rally, expect some further political maneuvering.








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