Updated: 2023 election coverage

Here are some international attempts at understanding the upcoming election:

Council on Foreign Relations, Thailand’s Parliament Has Been Dissolved: Elections Loom, But Will They Be Free?

In a free and fair election, it would be difficult for military-aligned parties to put together a winning coalition. But this could well not be a free and fair election. (2019 was not, after all.) The election commission is in the hands of Prayuth and his allies, and they can disqualify MPs who have won. The top court can even go so far as to disqualify entire parties.

Clipped from Nikkei Asia

DW, Will Thailand’s upcoming elections see a political shift?

… in recent years, Thailand has faced political unrest and economic woes, while the kingdom’s monarchy has been challenged. The prime minister’s popularity has faded.

Reuters, Thai PM Prayuth to run for re-election in May*

The military veteran has lagged rivals in opinion polls, but hopes to win over supporters with promises of looking after the wellbeing of the people and the country’s stability, and protecting the monarchy…. “The most important thing is to defend the country and protect the nation’s main institution. Please trust me as you’ve always done,” Prayuth said.

VICE, Thailand’s Election Is Filled With These Controversial Characters. Here’s What You Need to Know

Faced with pro-democracy protests, half-baked cannabis laws, and the comeback of the Shinawatra family, millions will cast their votes on the country’s leaders in May.

The Diplomat, Thai PM Dissolves Parliament, Paving Way For May Election

Thailand’s parliament has been dissolved by a government decree, setting the stage for a general election in May that will once again pit the country’s conservative establishment against an opposition led by the representatives of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The Times of India, Explainer: What you need to know about Thailand’s elections

Youth-led protests that began in 2020 broke a longstanding taboo around questioning the role of the monarchy in Thailand, where the constitution states the king is “enthroned in a position of revered worship”.

The Move Forward party has campaigned on reforming a law that punishes royal insults with up to 15 years in jail. Activists have urged opposition parties to scrap it, but the topic remains sensitive among many Thais and most parties oppose or want to avoid talk of reform.

The Washington Post, How Military Has a Thumb on Scales in Thai Election

Paywalled in some places.

La Prensa Latina Media, Thai leader Prayut confirms re-election bid

Prayut recently joined the United Thai Nation Party having previously led a government run by the pro-military Palang Pracharath Party.

He was army chief when the military seized power in a bloodless coup in May 2014 after months of anti-government demonstrations.

Of an authoritarian and ultra-monarchical nature, the military leader silenced any dissenting voice at the head of the military junta and delayed elections several times.

In 2019 he was appointed leader of the civilian government after elections that international observers described as lacking transparency.

Between 2020 and 2021, his government used police force to stop student-led demonstrations demanding reforms in the country and the monarchy, a highly taboo subject in Thailand.

Since then, more than 200 people, including minors, have been charged with lèse majesté and sedition for their peaceful activism. Both can carry long prison terms.

South China Morning Post, As Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn readies for May 14 vote, army and youth pose major challenges

“We are ready to rescue the country,” Paetongtarn told reporters on March 21 outside the City Pillar shrine where Bangkok residents seek blessings…. “We are very ready to go on campaigning and to explain our policies in greater detail, but in the end it’s about the people; whether they choose us or not, the power is in their hands.”

Update: *A reader rightly points out that the Reuters headline is buffalo manure because Gen Prayuth was never elected, except to the unelected senators he appointed.

Out of hospital and (still) campaigning II

The Straits Times has a useful story regarding the Move Forward Party and the appearance of Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong, as posted yesterday. The story, focused on Move Forward, is part of a series on Thailand’s key personalities and political parties as The Straits Times follows the campaign trail for the 2023 election.

It is a long an interesting story and PPT focuses on the part referring to lese majeste.

It was on 24 March, in Chonburi that Tawan and Bam climbed on the Move Forward campaign stage “with a sign [a ballot] asking people to vote to ‘abolish’ or ‘amend’ Thailand’s lese majeste law.”

Clipped from Bangkok Post

Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat welcomed them and allowed them to speak. “He then votes by placing a sticker in the ‘Abolish’ column on their poster. The 10 Chonburi constituency candidates behind him follow suit.”

Pita then said: “However, I must apologise, but the party must push for amendments first…”. He said that “if the amendments are still rejected, the party will push for its abolishment.” He told the crowd: “This is why the people of Chonburi must elect our candidates to step forward, so we have enough votes to solve political problems…”.

Out of hospital and (still) campaigning I

Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong were only discharged from Thammasat University Hospital on Thursday. It had taken 12 days for medicos to nurse them back to health after their 52-day fast.

Yet, as the Bangkok Post reports,

Within hours they were in Ayutthaya, attending a Pheu Thai Party campaign event for the May 14 general election. Carrying a large placard, they began to circulate through the crowd, asking party faithful to mark down whether they favoured repealing Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the royal defamation law. A second question asked whether freedom and economic prosperity were possible at the same time.

Clipped from Bangkok Post

The two women approached the party’s campaign stage, and were “eventually allowed onstage. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the face of the party and presumptive prime ministerial candidate, made some general remarks about freedom of expression and the moment passed without incident.”

The Post gleefully writes: “Like most parties campaigning for the May 14 poll, Pheu Thai does not want to make lese-majeste an issue, or even mention it at all, beyond saying that is open to discussing possible amendments.”

It then seems to want to attack Move Forward:

On Friday evening, Ms Tantawan and Ms Orawan — Tawan and Bam to their supporters — took their campaign to a Move Forward rally in Chon Buri, where they found an enthusiastic reception. Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat even invited them onstage and expressed support for their efforts.

It adds:

Only Move Forward has an explicit policy proposal to reform the law to reduce the current harsh punishments. The party also says that only the Bureau of the Royal Household should be allowed to file criminal complaints. Currently, anyone can file a lese-majeste complaint against anybody else and the police are obliged to investigate it.

Tantawan and Orawan have said they will “visit all the parties, even the ‘dictatorial’ ones, on the campaign trail to find out where their leaders and supporters stand on the lese-majeste issue.”

The Post suggests potential violence if they show up at the United Thai Nation (Ruam Thai Sang Chart) party “fronted by the acting prime minister, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, the reception might be less than warm. One of the big names who joined the party this week is Dr Rienthong Nanna, a ultra-royalist vigilante infamous for inciting supporters to go after reformist activists.”

This reporting is lop-sided, but at least the report includes available data on lese majeste cases long-missing from the Post’s reporting. We can probably thank Tawan and Bam for that!

Elections and the reform protesters II

A couple of days ago we posted on some of the monarchy reform protesters and their take on the upcoming election.

On Wednesday, the Ratsadon Group “launched a fresh democracy campaign called ‘Vote for Change’ in response to the May 14 general election.”

It was Ratsadon Group leader Patsaravalee Tanakitvibulpon who announced that the

Group is calling on all eligible voters to join in the ‘Vote for Change’ campaign by seeing to it that the nationwide race to parliament will be held in free, transparent and fair fashion and that pro-democracy parties which could possibly get a majority of MPs to set up a post-election government will be practically obliged to meet the group’s resolute goals.

Clipped from Thai Newsroom

She pointed to young political activists “raising the common objectives toward which the pro-democracy parties may contribute by making ‘structural changes’ to the coup-trigger-happy military and undemocratic bureaucratism as well as reforming the monarchy.”

The Group also “called on the pro-democracy parties to steer monarchical reform beginning with the long-awaited amendment to the draconian lese majeste law, better known as Section 112 of the Criminal Code.”

They also  called for amendments to the “coup junta-designed constitution of 2017 to make it truly democratic and ultimately put an end to the ‘tyrannical elite’ regime led by caretaker prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha who rose to power via the 2014 coup.”

Another Ratsadon Group leader Arnon Nampa “suggested the people not be so concerned over apparent conflict of standpoints between the Pheu Thai and Move Forward that they might compromise the shared goals of putting an end to the ‘tyrannical elite’…”.

Snitch royalist and lese majeste

Self-proclaimed secretary-general of the Association for the Protection of the Constitution, the constantly complaining Srisuwan Janya is back to lodging lese majeste complaints.

His target this time is a Move Forward Party (MFP) executive and MP for Phitsanulok, Padipat Santipada. According to detestable attention-seeker Srisuwan, at a campaign rally on March 5, in Phitsanulok, Padipat “told supporters some royally initiated projects were riddled with graft…”.

Professional snitch Srisuwan “filed a complaint with the Election Commission…”.

Suck-up Srisuwan claims that Padipat’s “mention of the graft in the speech was defamatory to the monarchy.”  Arch-royalist Srisuwan declared “it is common knowledge that projects royally initiated by His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej The Great and His Majesty the King, which number over 4,700, are intended for the well-being of the people…”. He did not say that the taxpayer funds these expensive propaganda pieces that are run by bureaucrats.

By using the monarchy, royalist vigilante Srisuwan hopes to have the Move Forward Party dissolved.

Who does the king want?

The election may still be some way off, but the issue of the palace and preferred outcome is already being pondered.

A recent article in Nikkei Asia by Marwaan Macan-Markar gets to the point, quoting an unnamed military intelligence source, who see 2023 as different from 2019: “But we should expect a twist this time…”. That has to do with Gen Prayuth Chanocha’s and Gen Prawit Wongsuwan’s “diminishing influence … over the army in recent years.”

Three army generals in 2019. Clipped from the Bangkok Post

This also saw rising palace influence: “Seasoned security analysts point to the annual promotions of the estimated 1,750 flag officers that signal this shift. Neither Prayuth nor Prawit, they say, played a significant role in the elevation of Gen. Narongphan Jitkaewthae, a palace favorite, to a three-year term as the army chief.”

Supalak Ganjanakhundee is cited as saying that Prawit “suffers” because “he is not close to the palace…”. Marwaan reckons “Bangkok-based diplomats have expressed similar sentiments during background discussions about palace favorites.”

Supalak added: “[Prawit] retired from the defense service a long time back and currently holds no ministerial posts to command the military,… [Prayuth did not] assign Prawit to take care of [any] security matters or anything related to the military.”

Prayuth remains “head of the Internal Security Operations Command, a Cold War relic that serves as the political arm of the military. Political insiders interviewed by Nikkei said that ISOC’s role will come under scrutiny — whether it will side with Prayuth’s camp over Prawit’s for the elections.”

There’s also “chatter in the barracks among conscripts, young soldiers and even captains, all under 30 years old, who favor opposition parties such as the pro-youth Move Forward and the pro-democracy Pheu Thai, according to military insiders.”

Of course, the palace abhors Move Forward and worries about Puea Thai and Thaksin Shinawatra.

Rigging it again II

Rigging the election campaign is just a little more complicated this time than it was in 2019; even then it was a close call for the royalist-military parties and their allies. Part of the complication has to do with the convolutions of the former military bosses organizing their own political futures, together or separately. Gen Prawit Wongsuwan is even trying to pretend he’s now a democrat.

Meanwhile, tons of state money – taxpayer funds – are been lashed about by the regime, giving those officials who influence electoral outcomes locally large pay rises.

But royalists are gunning for Puea Thai, fearing that the party is likely to do very well.

Sonthiya Sawasdee, a former adviser to the House committee on law, justice and human rights, has petitioned the Election Commission seeking the dissolution of Puea Thai “based on an allegation that it has broken election rules.” The claim is that the party has violated the law by allowing a figure banned from politics – Nattawut Saikua – participating in party campaign events.

Given bias in the EC and in the courts, this petition is not frivolous. Even if dismissed, such cases eat up energy and resources. Of course, a complaint has also be made against the Move Forward Party.

 

The defamation weapon

Junta-appointed Senator Upakit Pachariyangkun is back in the news, thanks to Move Forward MP Rangsiman Rome.

Upakit is the senator who was briefly wanted for arrest in connection with an alleged drug trafficking and money laundering ring, until the warrant was quickly made to disappear.

During last week’s censure debate Rangsiman tore shreds from the unelected senator’s claims and denials while drawing the links between Upakit and the regime that handed him his position and Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha’s Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party. He also picked up on Upakit’s business links to Tun Min Latt, a Myanmar tycoon with close ties to coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hliang.

In the manner of crooks, thieves, and corrupt politicians, Upakit’s response was to sue Rangsiman for defamation. Upakit’s lawyer has “filed a criminal defamation lawsuit against Rangsiman over the content of the speech, as well as a civil lawsuit demanding 100 million baht in damages.”

Upakit wants Rangsiman to shut up, not least because the latter came up with damning evidence of Upakit’s corruption., dark influence, and connections. Clearly, there’s more to come out, so Upakit is desperate.

Of course, Gen Prayuth’s party brazenly claims to be as clean as a whistle and the swill in the senate are uninterested:

Pornpetch Wichitcholchai, President of the Senate, said that the Senate currently has no plan to launch an investigation of Upakit, claiming that they do not have the information and no complaint has been filed.

Pornpetch also said that since Upakit filed a lawsuit against Rangsiman, the Senate cannot get involved.

Of course it can’t. But, then again, it wouldn’t anyway as its task is to run interference for its bosses and it corrupt members.

Parliament’s truths

The current debate in parliament has been interesting.

We at PPT were especially pleased to learn that Move Forward MP Amarat Chokpamitkul had called “for abolition of the army-led Internal Security Operations Command.”

She correctly observed that the “army-led agency has conducted missions against the people with opposing views, … brainwashed schoolchildren … to the extent that they develop hostility toward pro-democracy activists who may be indiscriminately viewed by the military as somehow detrimental to the monarchy.” Amarat calculates that “230,000 schoolchildren in the provinces have been recruited so far under the ISOC brainwashing campaign in the name of Thai Volunteers For National Defence…”.

She went further, calling for an amnesty for those facing sedition and lese majeste charges.

Meanwhile, another Move Forward MP, Padipat Santipada, pointed to coup leaders Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, and Gen Anupong Paojinda as having “failed to combat corruption in the army…”, and with turning a blind eye to the culture of corruption in the military and police.

Corruption now has its tentacles in every Thai’s purse.

Both MPs raise important points, pointing to the decay within the regime and its ability to stay in power: corrupt money aids brainwashing and turns elections.

Pushing forward on 112

Those who have opposed the hunger strike by Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong in favor of glacial change (maybe) might be scratching their heads as the regime realizes that the hunger strikers – now four and with a third taken to hospital – are a threat, especially as an election looms (maybe).

The Move Forward Party is also pushing for the regime to get off its collective fat butt as it “renewed calls for bail to be granted to political detainees…”. Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat “lodged a motion requesting a debate on what he described as the urgent need for Thailand to strictly follow the international principle of the presumption of innocence.” He’s implying that 112 suspects are presumed guilty.

The regime has moved. Justice Minister Somsak Thepsutin finally suggested that a response is possible. Thai Newsroom reports:

Somsak who yesterday visited the hunger strikers at the hospital vowed to take his part in averting sort of a political crisis and to see to it that bail will be finally granted by court for the political detainees, most of whom being adolescents, whilst those who may not be given bail could probably be held in house arrest in lieu of jail.

According to the justice minister, EM bracelets might no longer be used with such a type of detainee after they have been released under bail or probably put in house arrest.

Somsak also confirmed that the authorities will consider amending laws and regulations pertaining to the judicial process applicable to lese majeste and sedition cases but stopped short of elaborating.

Responding to the opposition he said: “It touched me deeply that young persons are so determined to risk their lives…”. It is reported:

Somsak said his ministry will hold talks with the National Human Rights Commission and related agencies to address problems in justice system, especially when it comes to granting bail to those awaiting trial. The ministry will also set up a fund to help those who cannot afford bail, he added.

Small but necessary steps.