Much to lose, much to protect

VOA has an article reminding its readers of the popularity of Move Forward and the strength of the monarchy.

As it faces dissolution, as recent polls show, Move Forward and its leaders remain remarkably popular with the electorate. As Thaksin Shinawatra can attest, popularity is seen by the establishment as a threat to the existing order and, at its core, the monarchy.

As the article points out, this popularity derives from “a radical slate of reforms for equitable governance — to cut the military from power, break up an economic monopoly and amend the royal defamation law, known as lèse-majesté, which criminalizes criticism of the powerful monarchy.” In many places, such reforms would not be seen as “radical,” but this is royalist Thailand.

A Move Forward spokesperson stated the obvious: “We’ve seen party dissolution being used as one of the tools against parties that are opposite from the establishment institution of Thailand…”.

Clipped from Asia Democracy Chronicles

The article makes another obvious point:

Thailand’s monarchy is extremely powerful, and the royal defamation law protects it from criticism, with sentences of up to 15 years per conviction.

Dozens of young pro-democracy activists have been jailed in the last few years under the law.

That the monarchy remains powerful despite the youthful rebellion against it in 2020-21 demonstrates, for royalists, how important Article 112 is for maintaining the socio-economic and political order.

But does all of the establishment action against Move Forward suggest that the ruling class are in their death throes? Does party dissolution really “… make … no difference,” as legal academic Prinya Thaewanarumitkul says, arguing:

The coalition government will get slightly stronger [without an opposition]. But when it comes to the next election, there will be four million new voters. Without the appointed Senate, it’s highly likely that the MFP’s next version will be the government.

We can’t help wondering if the establishment doesn’t have a plan for that as well…. It has much to lose and much to protect.