Succession hopes and troubles

Michael Ruffles is the deputy state topic editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and has a new piece on the return of the former exiled hopefuls from the king’s former family.

PPT has recently posted here and here on Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, the one who is most obviously campaigning for a royal position. Ruffles considers what might be going on. Of course the secretive palace says nothing but it is reasonable to assume that these guys don’t arrive in Thailand without the king’s permission (as Vacharaesorn sort of said in his recent Bloomberg interview).

Ruffles states:

All four once-exiled sons of the king of Thailand have been allowed to return to their home country for the first time in nearly 30 years – a development expected to be closely watched as the rich 72-year-old monarch is yet to officially endorse an heir.

Two of the princes had previously travelled to the country, but images on social media of the arrival on Friday of the eldest and youngest sons from the king’s doomed second marriage marks a new twist in a fascinating but secretive succession drama.

Its outcome will shape the fate of a multibillion-dollar property and business empire, a country of 70 million people and a beloved tourist destination that has often been ruptured by political upheaval and violence.

Clipped from the SMH

Ruffles mentions how Vajiralongkorn as a crown prince “divorced his second wife and cut his four eldest sons out of his life.” That needs some filling out. This second wife was former B-grade actress Yuvadhida Polpraserth who Vajiralongkorn had taken up with while still in his first marriage. Their official marriage was in 1994, announced to the public a while after it took place. This was because the prince’s philandering was viewed dimly by the public. Yuvadhida produced sons and a daughter. Within a couple of years, however, she and all of her kids were thrown out of Thailand in a fit of princely rage over what might have involved her infidelity. Only the daughter, now Princess Sirivannavari Nariratana, returned to live with Vajiralongkorn, with the sons and their mother living first in the UK and then in the USA.

In 1997, as Ruffles writes, Vajiralongkorn announced that he would “suspend all contacts with the children for any purpose whatsoever…. He would not be paying their tuition and even name-dropped Queen Elizabeth II as a source of support.” He adds: “The boys had their diplomatic passports snipped, were turned into refugees and were granted asylum in the US by the Clinton administration.”

He adds that the “brothers were stripped of their titles after the divorce and given a new name, Vivacharawongse…”.

Since 2023, that’s all changed: “Suddenly, they are back in the picture. Two princes had previously returned, testing the waters; one has a job in Bangkok while the other is establishing himself as a public figure. On Friday, the other two joined one of their brothers in walking through Suvarnabhumi airport…”. The “public figure” is Vacharaesorn who swans around the country like a full royal, with palace security and support. He claims to now be divorced from his American wife. Who knows what the truth is.

The eldest brother, Juthavachara, is in aviation and the youngest, Vatchrawee, is in finance. They are the latest to return. The third brother, “Chakriwat, is a doctor who has battled chronic illness but lately found work at a Bangkok hospital.” Again, it must be assumed that the granting of citizenship status and the position have palace approval. No one would dare cross the king.

From India Times

The king has been silent. Ruffles notes that the “72-year-old … [is a] man of controversy with massive personal wealth but no clear heir.” While the family has exhibited longevity in recent years, the current king looks unwell, and his previous emphasis on physical fitness has gone as he becomes portly and often seems unsteady in public.

Ruffles speculates that the status of the four brothers “in the royal line of succession has always been murky…”. PPT doesn’t think that is true, especially if the law is followed. However, as the 2017 constitution was changed to allow the king to do pretty much anything he wants related to the palace, perhaps the law is no longer of any consequence.

In the usual run of things for royal families, it might be expected that Prince Dipangkorn, from the king’s failed third marriage, would be heir. However, as Ruffles observes: “At 19,  has spent much of his life out of the public eye [and in Germany], and there are questions over his ability to take the throne.” Those questions revolve around his mental capacity, That said, in recent months, he has been making appearances and holding (stilted) conversations with some members of the public.

The king’s first child, Princess Bajrakitiyabha, a daughter with the king’s first failed marriage but herself unmarried, “suffered a massive brain injury in December 2022 from which she is not expected to recover.” By most measures she’s dead, but for unknown reasons is kept on machines in a hospital ward. Weirdly, her recent birthday was celebrated as if she remained alive.

The youngest royal daughter is Sirivannavari, from the failed marriage to Yuvadhida. She was brought back to the country years ago by the king, for unknown reasons. She’s now marketed as a fashion designer, equestrian, and anything else she has a whim for. She’s unmarried.

Ruffles speculates that the “princesses are not considered candidates for the throne…”. Given Bajrakitiyabha is one of the living dead, she’s out. Sirivannavari might be a chance, especially as she’s adopted some of her father’s foibles, like having her dogs treated as royals. But with five boys now floating about, her chances seems slim. Her chance might be to become the power behind a King Dipangkorn, as a “guiding hand … to …[her] youngest half-brother.”

Ruffles turns to the four brothers:

Sources close to the family, forbidden from speaking openly because of the country’s notorious lese-majesty laws that can impose 15-year jail terms for criticism of senior royals, point out the four brothers each have their own complicated relationship with their father and their homeland. What they have in common, these sources say, is their desire to protect their mother.

Law and societal conventions prevent open discussion of the monarchy and the succession drama that will play out as Vajiralongkorn ages, but the very fact of the princes’ return suggests a shift within the palace. Those around the king may be positioning themselves for the future.

And, as Ruffles notes, “Other factors may be at play: the king’s mother is in her 90s and has long been ill, and with his eldest daughter not expected to recover there is a need to project a sense that the family is strong and has a future.” He adds: “The family needs options, although none of them is a perfect choice.”

What’s missing in this is the role of the current Queen Suthida and the king’s many concubines. They clearly have an interest in what happens in the palace. They are unlikely to be passive observers.

Fun and games around the throne.