Winners and losers

In several recent posts we have mentioned a widely-held view at the top of society that considers that the “misguided youth” demanding monarchy and government reform have been seen off.

Clipped form the Jakarta Post

With so many leaders of the monarchy reform movement jailed or tied up in the rope of multiple legal cases, the bosses feel satisfied. They also know that the reformers’ party is struggling now that Thaksin Shinawatra is back and leading his Puea Thai Party in alliance with the royalist conservatives. There will be no Thaksin revolution this time. Thaksin might be difficult to control, but they feel “safer” with conservative parties controlling government. The ruling class feel they are winners.

In this context, and especially as there is “waning public support for the movement” – a product of repression and the manipulation of elections – many young political activists face hugely difficult decisions. Stay and feel smothered or escape to a new and freer life (albeit with all the trials of political exile).

Prachatai has an illuminating article on political exile. It begins:

… many activists and protesters are still facing charge resulting from their participations in the protests, especially royal defamation [Article 112] charges. Some are still imprisoned, while some have fled overseas.

The most recent wave of Thai political asylum seekers consists of 30 people, both protest leaders and protesters, the youngest of whom is 18 years old.

Almost all of them are facing a royal defamation [lese majeste] charge – a charge for which people are often denied bail and at least 15 people are now held in detention pending trial or appeal.

In an important point, the article observes that:

Even after a civilian government was elected following the May 2023 general election, the situation for political prisoners did not seem to improve. Those detained under the previous government have not been granted bail, while the number of people held in pre-trial detention continue to rise.

That’s the Puea Thai Party-led coalition.In this, the people of Thailand are losers, as well as a generation of young people with ideas about reform and democracy. The anti-democrats are winners.

It does appear, however, that new lese majeste cases have declined under this government. A similar decline was seen when Yingluck Shinawatra was prime minister. We can’t help but wonder if the deal is that the conservatives get their satisfaction from punishing the reformers, but that new cases are limited (which, ironically, protects the conservatives too).

Read the whole article. It demands contemplation.