Prem on the (civil) war path again?

Former Army commander, former (never elected) prime minister and now president of the king’s Privy Council, General Prem Tinsulanonda, has appeared in military uniform in public for the first time that PPT can recall for some time.

Both แนวหน้า (29 December 2009) and the Bangkok Post (29 December 2009: Prem says newspaper article is a ‘must-read’) report that it is the first time since the 19 September 2006 palace-military coup that Prem has appeared in army uniform.

Prem “said he was in military uniform because it made him feel healthy and strong. Prem met the military brass and several prominent royalists at his rent-free, army-supplied home and then marched off to the “armed forces’ cadet schools and gave a lecture on their duties to the monarchy.” The last time he did this was when Prem was rounding up military support for the forthcoming coup (see, for example, Bangkok Post, 29 July 2006, and several other stories posted at General Prem’s website, scroll down to see them).

Hence, this is an important event. What is the significance? PPT believes that the royalists have convinced themselves that the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra forces are about to have a showdown with the current government. PAD came up with this view several weeks ago and it has been continuously repeated by royalists, in the media and by senior government officials.

PPT doesn’t have access to any “intelligence” other than media reports and has no information that would suggest a red shirt showdown. We know that the Peua Thai Party plan a censure debate and there is considerable discussion of more rallies. None of this is out of the ordinary. However, it seems clear that the military, various royalists and some of the anti-Thaksin yellow-shirted intellectuals are certain that something akin to the Songkhran Uprising or a “final showdown” is about to take place.

Prem is preparing his people for the predicted fight. At the public meeting were the military brass, led by Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, and a bunch of well-known royalists including Privy Council No. 2 and post-coup prime minister General Surayud Chulanont, Supreme Court president Wirat Limwichai and behind-the-scenes coup plotter Prasong Soonsiri. The still acting police chief Pateep Tanprasert was also present.

To make the point about the looming battle, Prem recommended a newspaper article by Thaksin critic Chirmsak Pinthong (แนวหน้า, 28 December 2009) which argues that Thailand is in the midst of a civil war (PPT will post on this separately). Prem recommended the article to those who were visiting him. Adding to the impact of this, Prem referred to the king’s short birthday speech. Saying that the speech was “special, profound and meaningful,” Prem urged his visitors to follow the king’s advice.

As PPT has previously pointed out, royalists and government supporters have given considerable political meaning to the king’s speech, which was hardly profound and only made meaningful by these interpretations that saw it as a call for the current regime to prevail.

It seems that the forces of the establishment are again being aligned for a battle against those they readily see as traitors. Notably absent at the moment is a mobilized PAD. However, the lesson of last April seems to have been that military action is acceptable to the business and middle classes when protecting “the nation” of the privileged and the frightened.