Establishment wins (again)

The parliamentary selection of Bhum Jai Thai’s Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister is unquestionably a victory for Thailand’s conservatives. That this win was delivered by the reformist People’s Party is both ironic and potentially a disaster for that party.

Clipped from Khaosod

The People’s Party claimed to be standing by an agreement it had with Anutin that he will dissolve parliament and seek a new election in four months, along with some other items.

It is understood that the People’s Party felt unable to support Puea Thai as that party had double-crossed it in 2023, when a reasonably progressive government was possible. Thaksin Shinawatra threw the then Move Forward Party under a bus in order that he could return to Thailand and satisfy his craving to lead again (even if not PM). The deal he did with the establishment meant Puea Thai led a coalition government that, constrained by the Thaksin deal and by establishment fetish, could not do very much at all.

Now Thaksin seems to have fled the country. Has he been told he’s going back to jail? Or has he just added up the numbers and realized that Puea Thai was toast. Many say it feels like an abandonment.

That Puea Thai government, unable to implement most of its policies, was also a coalition full of criminals, dark influences, and godfathers. The Bhum Jai Thai government will look pretty much the same. It may even have a convicted heroin trafficker – Thammanat Prompao – as Minister of Interior. But, it will be even more conservative (support for weed is not progressive politics). Puea Thai’s incompetence has also moved the military back into politics, and this will bolster Anutin’s regime.

With both People’s Party and Puea Thai in opposition, Anutin’s government may also face parliamentary blocking. That said, with Thaksin’s trip to Dubai, we do not rule out Puea Thai defections. Certainly, many of its MPs want to stay on a gravy train.

Will Anutin, scion of a capitalist construction empire and close to the palace, keep to the agreement with the People’s Party? Is he trustworthy?

That’s doubtful, and his managers in the establishment and in Buriram where Newin Chidchob lurks may see advantage in staying place as a government. That depends on their capacity to buy up MPs.

And what of the People’s Party? Have they self-harmed? Certainly, in recent days, many progressives have expressed disappointment. Average voters are unlikely to understand the intricacies of the deal done, and may just see it as old-style politics. The party’s roll of the political dice could harm the party electorally.

The next few weeks will be interesting.