Waiting for the deal makers to announce the next plan for Thailand, conjured in secret meetings, is driving a wedge between pro-democracy forces, thus doing the ruling class’s work.
You have to marvel at the way Thaksin Shinawatra can make everything political about him. His party did not get the political landslide he wanted, but it was a part of a pro-democracy/anti-military landslide that is now being shredded.
While he may be wrong this time, “massage parlour tycoon-turned-whistleblower Chuvit Kamolvisit” has been right about a lot of late, and he recently
held a press conference on Thursday in which he claimed Pheu Thai had struck a deal with Bhumjaithai and the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) parties to form a government with a combined 279 MPs, excluding the MFP. He said that key figures of the parties met Thaksin in Hong Kong to strike the deal on Tuesday — the same day Mr Thanathorn [Juangroongruangkit] met Thaksin there, Mr Chuvit claimed…. “With the formation of a new coalition, the MFP [Move Forward], the United Thai Nation Party, and the Democrat Party would form the opposition,” he said.
That will be a disunited “opposition,” meaning the ruling parties will probably have unchecked control in parliament.
The betting is strong for Anutin Charnvirakul to emerge as prime minister after a sham selection process next week, with the “real” selection after that.
Interestingly, much of the uncomfortableness about the backroom dealing is targeted at Thanathorn. In another recent story, there’s this:
Responding to media reports about the alleged Hong Kong deal, Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn, an MFP list-MP, tweeted that he didn’t pay much attention to whether or not it was true…. “Even if I end up feeling like a fool when I realise I have been deceived and lost everything, my honesty and integrity will still be here with me. And I can still walk with my chin up and face anyone as usual,” he said on Twitter…. “And even if this mission is doomed to fail because of betrayal, that will still be better than making it fail now due to distrust within the team.”
That is probably a reflection of a broader disenchantment.
In the same report, Attachak Satayanuruk of Chiang Mai University, said:
he thinks Thaksin’s announced return to Thailand is part of a deal between him, Pheu Thai and … the ruling class…. These sides are in a deal due to their mutual fears that the MFP’s reformist movement could threaten their political security, said Mr Attachak…. As a part of the deal, Thaksin will look for ways to divide the supporters of Pheu Thai and MFP as much as possible so as to stall the MFP’s reformist movement, said Mr Attachak.
Remarkably, Thaksin seems to have already done some of that division, abetted by Thanathorn.
While some Puea Thai supporters will cheer the outcome and Thaksin’s return, we can’t help wondering how they will feel about a cabinet of cronies and criminals. They may even cheer a deal that has obvious palace collusion – Thaksin’ return needs that approval.
On the other side, there are still many Thaksin opponents lurking….
Update 1: And, of course, Move Forward and Pita Limjaroenrat also face Constitutional Court vengeance.
Update 2: Chuwit has now posted on social media that the “situation” has changed and that Thaksin is not returning to Thailand. Does this mean the deal is off? Who knows? Does this mean the ruling class is divided? Almost certainly. And the damage to Move Forward? It lingers and the Constitutional Court still lurks.
Update 3: One thing we can confirm is that the convicted heroin trafficker Thammanat Prompao, is back as secretary-general of Palang Pracharath. The twists and turns are at warp speed.
Update 4: A report on Chuwit’s claims at the Bangkok Post is worth reading. His claims are contradicted:
The ex-premier’s daughter Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra, a Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate, called the whistleblower’s remark “baseless”. Plans for her father’s Aug 10 return were still in place, she said.