November 22, 2009

New: Heating up

Amidst the huffing and puffing about Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s forthcoming visit to Chiang Mai, The Nation (22 November 2009: “Heavy security in North keeps protesters from PM”) reports on his recent official visit to Phitsanulok, Sukhothai and Phichit, all provinces where there is reasonably strong government support.

The Nation reports that the visits “went smoothly with no violence or disruption, thanks to heavy security that prevented anti-government protesters from getting close to him.” It says that his visit was protected by “[h]undreds of anti-riot police and four helicopters” in one district in Phitsanulok, with human barricade and metal barriers used to block the road.

It is said that “hundreds of red shirts gathered” to protest his visit, but police kept them a kilometer away from the prime minister.

Abhisit only came close to the thousands of organized supporters “including local villagers, politicians and officials” were arranged to greet the premier. Abhisit asked villagers if they were happy with the Democrat Party-led government’s projects “aimed at helping farmers” including subsidies. His organized followers provided the unsurprizing response that “they were pleased.”

On these forays into rural areas, usually accompanied by thousands of police, military and officials, Abhisit records his weekly television address, attempting to give the impression that  while he is seen as rooted in Bangkok, he is a man of the rural people.

Abhisit has made it clear that the Thai khemkaeng projects will be used to curry favor and, he hopes, win votes. He announced that Phitsanulok “would receive up to Bt3.8 billion from the Thai Khemkhaeng stimulus scheme next year, the highest budget for lower northern provinces.” Phitsanulok has 3 Democrat Party members of parliament.

On of those members described villagers giving Abhisit a “warm welcome” and “knew that Abhisit had come to help them.” He said the “government received a great response to its policies.” Indeed, he said, “Abhisit is very hot here.”

He’ll be hot in Chiang Mai also, but not because he’ll be surrounded by supporters. Red shirts in Chiang Mai are planning huge demonstrations against his visit. Red shirts have often over-estimated their numbers before, but Chiang Mai is a stronghold, so PPT would expect thousands of red shirts and thousands of security personnel. However, we would also expect the government to implement the Internal Security Act to limit and restrict protests.

When in opposition the Democrat Party seemed less concerned about protests against government leaders, and was also alleged to have been organizing protests in the south, with PAD, to “chase government ministers out of the south.” At the time, now Deputy Prime Minister in charge of security matters, Suthep Taugsuban, considered such protests an expression of public sentiment (see the Bangkok Post and Nation for July 2008).

Meanwhile, as often happens in these periods of increasing political activity, conservatives come out to support their political party. The Nation (22 November 2009: “Fierce political battles brewing”) reports that Pummarat Thaksadipong, a former director of the National Intelligence Agency, has come out to warn of likely red shirt violence. He says he has “intelligence” that violence would be used.

He predicts “[s]erious political confrontation – and possibly violence – could erupt during the upcoming months when Thaksin [Shinawatra] and his allies inside Parliament and on the streets employ an arsenal of tactics in a bid to effect a change in government.” The claim is that the Puea Thai Party “would disrupt the work of Parliament, and those who are protest leaders would instigate hatred against the government and possibly incite violence…”. This is all claimed to be motivated by Thaksin’s fear that his frozen Bt76 billion will be lost when the courts again rule against him and confiscate this “unusual wealth.”

Pro-government, pro-military senators joined this chorus, with Senator Paiboon Nititawan claiming that the red shirts want “to cause violence and deaths.” He claims they failed at this in April, and now want blood and deaths.

PPT agrees that the political heat has been significantly turned up, with all sides looking less restrained. The April Songkhran Uprising might indeed be something to think about again. However, if that anger and frustration were to boil over again, we have the impression that more brutal repression cannot be ruled out.

We say this because the government and its backers are also increasingly frustrated. PAD supporters are calling for blood. Other supporters – like Senator Paiboon – are stirring the flames of conflict. It also seems that the government and its powerful backers are convinced that decisive action is required. The government has become more repressive and more reliant on the security apparatus. With better control of the police now established, harsher repression is increasingly likely.

We hope we have this wrong.

November 21, 2009

New: The Democrat Party too predictable?

In the absolutely most predictable move in Thai politics, a “meeting of the political situation assessment committee of Democrat Party has passed a resolution to recommend the government that the Internal Security Act (ISA) in Bangkok and Chiang Mai next weekend…” (Bangkok Post, 21 November 2009: “Democrats back imposition of ISA”).

Party spokesperson Buranaj Smutharaks, who works in tandem with Sathit Wongnongtoey as chief spokesmen for repression and censorship, said that the Democrat Party wanted to prevent “anti-government demonstrators from provoking unrest which would damage the country’s economy…”.

Well, at least they didn’t claim to be acting in the interests of “national security” or the monarchy. But now the Democrat Party is using repression and authoritarian tactics to protect the economy.

Buranaj did add that “red-shirts in Chiang Mai had threatened to kill prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva” and that they planned a rally to bring down the government, claiming that “this means they will resort to the use of all violent means to achieve the goal.” There have also been claims by Democrat Party members that Thaksin Shinawatra will march across the border to lead an armed uprising.

The Democrat Party seems seriously rattled, and when they are rattled, those of an authoritarian nature, like Abhisit, Sathit and Buranaj, gains strength and get opportunities to create fear in the middle class and implement more repression.

November 21, 2009

New: Crown and government

PPT readers may find a current debate in Britain of some interest. The Financial Times (18 November 2009: “Crown dethroned in Whitehall”) discusses changes proposed that even provokes the use of the term “lese majeste” and cites conservative royalists spluttering and fuming over change. The Daily Express (19 November 2009: “Labour Dethrone Queen in Bill”) has a shorter article although the comments by readers are worth perusal.

Could such a debate be considered in Thailand?

 

November 21, 2009

Updated: Questioning Amnesty International’s double standards

Also available as สงสัยในสองมาตรฐานขององค์กรนิรโทษกรรมสากล

Yesterday PPT posted on the Asian Human Rights Commission statement on the use of the Computer Crimes Act as a substitute for the lese majeste law and Reporters Without Borders released a report the day before criticizing the use of this other laws that limit expression.

PPT assumes that because these “crimes” are political and related to the monarchy in Thailand, that Amnesty International will say nothing. That has been its “policy.”

But what are they doing elsewhere? On 16 November 2009, there was this:

Urgent Action 308/09 – Prisoners of conscience – Bloggers Jailed in Azerbaijan: URGENT ACTION APPEAL – From Amnesty International USA

Two “activists and bloggers” are said by AI to “have been sentenced to two and a half years and two years respectively in an unfair trial. Amnesty International believes the charges against them were fabricated and they have been imprisoned solely for exercising their right to freedom of expression.” One of the men posted “a satirical video … criticizing the Azerbaijani government … on the video-sharing website YouTube.”

Interestingly, in this case, the men are jailed on charges that don’t relate to their postings. However, AI considers them prisoners of conscience because the government has targeted them for their political views.

So can anyone at Amnesty International explain why Thailand is different for the organization? How is the jailing of people in Thailand different? PPT sees that the details are different. In fact, the use of the law is harsher in Thailand (jailing for 20 years, reduced to 10 – Suwicha Thakor) and being held for long periods without bail (Suwicha and Nat Sattayapornpisut), but political “crimes” are very similar. Indeed, in Thailand a special law has been created to facilitate intimidation and to allow for people to be “imprisoned solely for exercising their right to freedom of expression.” That law was put in place by an illegitimate, military-backed government. The trials of these Thais could never be considered fair.

We wonder how it is that Amnesty International feels comfortable operating with such double standards.

Readers may want to ask AI, but be aware that emailing AI produces, in PPT’s experience, no response at all: Amnesty International USA, 600 Pennsylvania Ave SE 5th fl, Washington DC 20003, Email: uan@aiusa.org, http://www.amnestyusa.org/, Phone: 202.544.0200, Fax: 202.675.8566

November 20, 2009

With 2 updates: Monitoring and repressing for the monarchy

In a government that is increasingly authoritarian, Prime Minister’s Office Minister Sathit Wongnongtoey seems most enthusiastic about  increased repression and censorship. The Nation (19 November 2009: “Govt to monitor Jakrapob’s phone-in: Satit”) reports that Sathit has reminded “media outlets to abide by the law when reporting the phone-in of fugitive red-shirt leader Jakrapob Penkair…”.

Sathit stated that the authorities would “closely monitored by authorities” because he believed that Jakrapob  wanted to “smuggle weapons via the Northeast borders for an uprising during the rally from November 29 to December 3.”

He added: “The government is definitely keeping a close tap on Jakrapob who is acting hostile to the country and its revered institution…”.

Sathit repeatedly demonstrates the monarchy’s significant political role and the Democrat Party’s determination to repress dissent and opposition to protect the current order.

Update 1: Sathit is also cited in the Bangkok Post (21 September 2009: “Abhisit gets radio death threats”). This report claims that red shirt community radio stations in Chiang Mai had threatened Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

The Post states this somewhat circumspectly this way: “Some community radio stations are said to have threatened to kill Mr Abhisit in a bomb attack during his visit.” It adds that Democrat Party MP for Bangkok “Boonyod Sukthinthai lodged a complaint with … police against the host of a programme broadcast on FM 92.5 community radio in Chiang Mai. The complaint demanded an investigation into Phetchawat Wattanapongsirikul, host of the Sapha Kafae (Coffee Council) programme, and his co-host, who was not identified.Both were accused of encouraging their audience to come out to protest violently against Mr Abhisit. Mr Boonyod also handed over audio clips of the programme broadcasts to the CSD for further investigation.”

If it is true that a station called for Abhisit to be killed, then this is a serious issue. As serious as PAD speakers calling for the beheading of Hun Sen, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, and Thaksin Shinawatra, alluding to an old Thai saying of shedding blood to wash royal feet.”

As is now usual, the Democrat Party-led government is awash with double standards. So PAD can call for murder and not a peep from them, but an allegation of a similar call from Chiang Mai reds and Minister Sathit is wound up into repress mode yet again.

He has ordered the community radio stations in Chiang Mai be closely monitored and he claims “have repeatedly incited red shirt supporters to protest against Mr Abhisit’s visit to the province on Nov 2.”

That might be true, but if Sathit knows it, why does he also state that there is no clear evidence?  Indeed, he says: “When there is clear evidence that they have violated criminal law and community radio regulations, the stations will be shut down and face legal action…”. Is Sathit simply trying to intimidate opposition and red shirt community radio stations?

The government is planning “[e]xtra-tight security is being planned. Twenty companies of police and another 20 companies of troops from the 3rd Army will be deployed during the prime minister’s visit.”

Abhisit “warned Thaksin Shinawatra’s supporters in Chiang Mai to stop their hostile action, saying they should work with the government to bring about peace and reconciliation in the province.”

Update 2: The Bangkok Post (21 November 2009: “Red-shirts: No plan to kill PM Abhisit”) has a report that the red shirts in Chiang Mai accuse the government of “slandering Chiang Mai red-shirts to justify its plan to use ten of thousands of police and military force to attack the antigovernment protesters.” Rak Chiang Mai (Love Chiang Mai) 51 group leader Kanyaphak Maneechak insisted that a red-shirt DJ’ scooments were taken out of context and that he “was just making joke when he said he would kill Mr Abhisit in a bomb attack during his Chiang Mai visit…”.

In a highly charged situation, joking about such matters is unlikely to be helpful to anyone and damages the red shirts.

Kanyaphak “warned the Thai Chamber of Commerce to be careful if it insists to invite Mr Abhisit to chair its annual meeting in Chiang Mai.” She commented that “There are a lot of red-shirt groups in the province. In addition a third hand could take this opportunity to create situation…”.

November 20, 2009

New: AHRC and RWB on computer crimes as lese majeste

On 20 November 2009, the Asian Human Rights Commission released a timely statement on the use of the Computer Crimes Act as a substitute for the lese majeste law and Reporters Without Borders released a report the day before criticizing the use of this and other laws that are meant to control and limit expression: “Harassment and intimidation are constantly employed to dissuade Internet users from freely expressing their views.”

Read the report on RWB at Prachatai, where some extra and useful links are included.

As PPT readers may have noticed, at our pages on Pending Cases and About Us, we also recognized this substitution. Some months ago we began including those charged with “national security” offenses under the Computer Crimes Act along with lese majeste cases.

AHRC mention five cases: the royals health rumors scapegoats Thatsaporn Rattanawongsa (arrested just a couple of days ago), Thiranan Vipuchanun, Khatha Pachachirayapong and Somjet Itthiworakul (arrested earlier in November), Prachatai’s webmaster Chiranuch Premchaiporn, charged back in March, and Suwicha Thakor, arrested in January, convicted in April and sentenced to 20 years jail, reduced to 10 after he finally agreed to plead guilty. RWB list others, including Nat Sattayapornpisut, arrested in October.

AHRC makes some excellent points, noting that negative publicity “over the cases against persons critical of its royal family, or persons claiming to act on the royals’ behalf” has caused the Democrat Party-led government to change tack and downplay lese majeste while using other means to repress and censor. It is added that the Justice Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga remarkably claimed that “Offences against the King, the Queen, the Heir-Apparent or the Regent are considered offences relating to the security of the Kingdom, not ‘lese-majesty’… I am certain that each state as well as Thailand has its own way of interpreting what constitutes offences relating to national security. Therefore, whoever violates the law of the Kingdom will be fairly charged and prosecuted according to the law of the Kingdom.”

As AHRC points out, the Computer Crimes Act “is an excellent substitute” for a repressive government that wants to appear to international community as one that favors the “rule of law.” As is clear, they use this law to harass, intimidate and to lock up those who oppose the national ideology.

AHRC notes that the Computer Crimes Act “was passed in the final hours of the military-appointed proxy legislature following the 2006 coup, and … was designed as a tool to suppress dissent, not responsibly deal with Internet crime in Thailand. Its ambiguous provisions, notably the section under which all these persons have been charged, allow for the prosecution of any type of thought crime on the disingenuous pretext that the crime is one of technology rather than one of expression or of ideas. Therefore, the state can claim that it is bringing people to court for one type of crime, while sending a clear message to a society that the real offence is altogether different.”

November 19, 2009

Updated: The queen’s musketeers and Suthep

Also available as ทหารเสือราชินีและสุเทพ

Wassana Nanuam in the Bangkok Post (19 November 2009: “Govt safe as Suthep charms Tiger Warriors of the East”) has an interesting discussion of what she calls a “story of an extraordinary friendship [that]  is full of intrigue, betrayal, plots and counter-plots to fend off an enemy far away.” The friendship is between Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwon, Army chief General Anupong Paojinda and deputy Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha.

Prawit is said to be the “big brother” of Anupong and Prayuth from their days in the 2nd Infantry Division on the Thai-Cambodian border and they were among the so-called Tiger Warriors of the East. The three rose together “in the division which also oversees the Queen’s Guard unit. The three generals’ fraternal bonds grew stronger during the time when they served in the 21st Infantry Regiment, Queen’s Guard in Chon Buri. Their steadfast loyalty to the monarchy has been the reason they came to be known as ‘The Queen’s Musketeers’.”

Suthep is now working to “manufacture amicability and forge ties with the generals as he seeks a solid military cushion for the government.” This is founded on opposition to the “common enemy,” Thaksin Shinawatra. Suthep’s friendship “extends to Gen Prayuth, who is touted as the army chief-in-waiting. Gen Prayuth is also a staunch royalist who is said to be rather put off by the sight of red, the theme colour of the pro-Thaksin movement.”

As well as a common enemy, Suthep and the three generals “were brought together by a common goal of forming the current government in December last year…”. That was engineered at “Prawit’s residence inside the compound of the 1st Infantry Regiment, Royal Guard, on Vibhavadi Rangsit Road.”

General Prawit wants the  government to last long enough to ensure that the next military reshuffle guarantees “that Gen Prayuth takes over the army’s top position from Gen Anupong.” It is also said that Suthep, “who chairs the Police Commission, has finalised the shake-up of senior police posts including the appointment of Pol Lt Gen Santan Chayanont as the new Metropolitan Police Bureau Commissioner.” Wassana says that the “appointment is said to have been made at the request of Gen Prayuth, who was Pol Lt Gen Santan’s classmate in the armed forces academy. With Pol Lt Gen Santan heading the bureau, the city police and the military are in for smoother coordination in handling anti-government protests in Bangkok.”

Wassana concludes: “So for now, it looks as though the generals and Mr Suthep are very much on the same page.” And, it looks like the Abhisit Democrat Party is continuing to build control in the civil and military bureaucracy that will surpass anything Thaksin did during his time in power. All of this ensures the continued dominance of royalists and the military.

November 19, 2009

Updated: Red shirts to rally

The Bangkok Post (19 November 2009: “Reds confirm protest rally plans”) reports that the red shirts plan street rallies from 28 November to 2 December, demanding “the government immediately call a general election.”

This rally will be seen as provocative. Indeed, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva calls it a “plan to topple the government.” The red shirt rallies have been peaceful since the Songkhran Uprising, but the idea of red shirts ralling at various city intersections will remind some of those April events. At the same time, this planned rally is kind of mirroring PAD’s rallies at the airports last year at the same time. The rally will also target the party dissolution decision that brought down the elected government let by the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra People’s Power Party and allowed the Democrat Party to be maneuvered into government.

Red shirt leaders say they plan for peaceful demonstration and say that if the government doesn’t call an election they will rally continuously following the king’s birthday until their demand is met.

Abhisit also said “he was confident its anti-government rallies would not turn violent,” but added that the government would consider using the Internal Security Act again.

The government’s chief whip “Chinnaworn Boonyakiat said the next few weeks would be an improper time for any political demonstration as all Thai people were happily preparing to show their loyalty to His Majesty the King on his birthday.” We wonder if that advice also applies to PAD, who have called a rally for the day of the king’s birthday?

Update: Democrat Party MPs are calling for authorities to revoke the bail of red shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan. Jatuporn is bailed on charges related to the Songkhran Uprising in April. The MPs want him locked up.  Democrat MP Watchara Phetthong said: “Jatuporn has openly declared [that the red shirts want] to drive out the government by he upcoming rally, scheduled to start on November 29; this is a clear violation of his bail…”.

It is telling that we hear nothing from these people when their allies in yellow shirts call for the beheading of “traitors” and “enemies” to “wash royal feet,”  refer to “traitors” being “non-humans” and demand that the “traitors” be “finished off quickly” for Nation, Religion and King.

 

November 19, 2009

New: A general metamorphosis

In yet another throwback to the past, a coup maker has entered “democratic” politics via an unknown political party associated with dinosaur and criminal politicians (Bangkok Post, 19 November 2009, here and here).

2006 coup leader General SonthiBoonyaratkalin never convinced anybody that he was much more than another  military duffer who was able to be used by those who wanted to oust Thaksin Shinawatra’s government in 2006. Now  Sonthi wants to convince voters that he has undergone a miraculous metamorphosis from a not too bright tool of the palace to a bright and shining light for Thailand’s democratic future.

Is PPT being too harsh on the general? We don’t think so. Thai generals are brought up on a diet of monarchical nationalism and hierarchy which means that few of them make an easy transition into the hurly-burly of Thailand’s electoral politics. They are used to being believed when they make dumb statements and aren’t used to being challenged in any way. In the military they get ahead by bonding to other “risers,” by not doing much wrong, parroting the shibboleths of the military and the monarchy and, if possible, acquiring some wealth.

Why did he join the  Matuphum Party associated with Vatana Asavahame? Partly because it is made up of Muslim politicians of the Wadah faction but the general also says: “because it had a politically neutral stand. It had set a goal to promote national reconciliation, a mission he intended to achieve.” It is good to know that political parties can be politically neutral. But then proving that  he doesn’t know what he said, he attacks Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and the Peua Thai Party on the South. Not that Sonthi achieved much when he was army chief.

On the 2006 coup, Sonthi says that he did it because things were bad. “If there had not been that coup, I can’t imagine what the situation would be like today…” . A truism if there ever was one.

Another dumb general thinking he knows something about politics and that the electorate is equally dumb and will forget his anti-democratic past.

November 19, 2009

New: More from Sulak

Bangkok Pundit has posted the second part of the Thai Post interview with Sulak Sivaraksa (first part here), where he has thoughts on Thaksin and Abhisit. Worth reading for controversial but interesting views.