A reader sent us the following article as a reflection on recent events:
On 29 November 2023, Thailand’s Royal Gazette announced that King Vajiralongkorn had, on 21 October, signed an order appointing 2014 coup leader and prime minister Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha to his Privy Council.
In one sense, this was a reward for a military leader who had spent his career providing loyal service to the palace. Yet like Gen Prem Tinsulanonda before him, Prayuth had been more than a run-of-the-mill loyal servant. Both had been army commanders who also spent many years as prime ministers without facing the electorate.
Like Prem, as prime minister Prayuth worked assiduously to strengthen Thailand’s conservative polity, where the military and bureaucracy controlled politics under the auspices of the monarchy and where super-rich tycoons provided support for the regime. Prayuth’s military-backed regime established a constitution and numerous associated laws that codified the conservative polity – a system he referred to as “Thai-style democracy” – establishing extraordinary powers for unelected bodies that gave them “oversight” of elections and elected governments.
That system worked as expected in 2019, delivering an election victory to military-backed parties that extended Prayuth’s tenure as prime minister. Yet, as the 2023 approached, it was clear that the military-backed parties would be trounced. Voters wanted change and were drawn to opposition parties that promised an end to Prayuth’s regime and the military’s control of politics.
Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party led in many pre-election polls. However, as the campaign developed, Pheu Thai’s opposition partner the Move Forward Party also polled strongly. It looked likely that Move Forward would be a part of a post-election government.
The conservative establishment, composed of military leaders, palace officials, the wealthiest tycoons, and other royalists, was aghast and fearful that the years of Prayuth’s conservative polity would be undone by Move Forward’s “radical” and anti-monarchy reformism.
The wave of public support for Move Forward was born not just of a desire for change, but also of the dissolution of its predecessor party, Future Forward, and the exuberant monarchy reform movement that partly resulted from that dissolution. Prayuth’s government had seen off the monarchy reform movement by facing down street protests and by using the judicial system to bury articulate reformers under a barrage of legal cases. Many were charged with multiple counts of lese majeste.
The regime may have stifled dissent, but its heavy-handed repression made military-backed parties unelectable. To save the conservative polity, the establishment did the unthinkable. After years of casting Thaksin as an evil anti-monarchist and battling his Thai Rak Thai-People Power Party-Pheu Thai Party, it turned to Pheu Thai. Dealing with Thaksin and Pheu Thai was preferable to allowing the Move Forward Party to have a hand in a post-election government.
A week before the May 2023 election, in a secret meeting, Thaksin and palace and tycoon figures did a deal – always publicly denied – that would keep Move Forward out of a Pheu Thai Party coalition government and kept the military-backed parties in the coalition. The details of the deal will probably never be revealed. However, Thaksin soon returned from exile, served less than a day in prison, and received a royal pardon for most of his sentence. And, despite being edged in the election by Move Forward, Pheu Thai formed government.
Credit: Khaosod
In the election campaign, recognizing the electorate’s yearning for change, Pheu Thai portrayed itself as a populist agent of change, implying it would reject military-backed parties and promising a government that would bring social, economic, and political reform.
After the election, Pheu Thai spokespersons somewhat unenthusiastically participated in coalition talks with Move Forward. But these talks were soon derailed by royalist taunts that Move Forward was anti-royalist and multiple calls for it to be dissolved. Meanwhile, the Senate made it clear that the party’s leader Pita Limjaroenrat could never be approved by parliament as prime minister.
The Senate, entirely made up of members appointed by Prayuth’s military junta, operated under transitory constitutional provisions that made approval of a prime minister a matter for a joint sitting of both houses of parliament. These senators duly rejected Pita. Meanwhile, agencies the Prayuth regime had populated with its supporters moved against Pita. In what some saw as a plot, the Constitutional Court suspended Pita from parliament while it considered two flimsy cases that could result in Pita’s banning from politics and the dissolution of the party.
The stymying of Move Forward gave Pheu Thai an opportunity to form a coalition government and nominate real estate tycoon and establishment scion Srettha Thavisin as prime minister. Srettha promptly received the overwhelming support of both houses in parliament. In coalition building, Pheu Thai rejected Move Forward while Srettha’s 34-member cabinet includes 16 ministers drawn from the parties from the previous government.
The first months of Srettha’s government have been marked by its unwillingness to do anything new. The circumstances of its rise and the determination to keep Thaksin from jail mean that it has to abandon campaign promises and slow signature policies to a snail’s pace, including its 10,000 baht digital wallet, meant to stimulate a listless economy. Yet the conservative polity has been maintained.
We may never know if Prayuth’s Privy Council appointment was a part of the historic deal to overturn Move Forward’s electoral success and preserve the conservative polity. Yet that appointment fittingly bookends the successful effort to maintain Prayuth’s political legacy. Conveniently, being appointed to the Privy Council shields Prayuth from political criticism and any legal repercussions from his coup leadership and his actions as the establishment’s prime minister.